A line of intense thunderstorms is expected to bring the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Tornadoes have been observed in northern Louisiana late Sunday morning. These storms are moving into Mississippi, where Tornado Watches are in effect as of early Sunday afternoon. Reliable forecast models show these storms spreading into Alabama early this evening and into the western Florida Panhandle around midnight. Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes are anticipated within a line of thunderstorms as it approaches.

The Pensacola area is most likely to see the storms between 10 PM and 2 AM. The time of arrival for the Destin, Fort Walton, and Crestview areas is between 1 and 4 AM.

A second surge of wind energy in the lower part of the atmosphere is forecast to surge into the Panama City, Marianna, and Tallahassee areas overnight. This is likely to lead to the intensification of storms as they approach these areas. Present estimates show the storms arriving near Panama City and Marianna between 3 and 6 AM. The Tallahassee and Apalachicola areas should expect the storms to arrive between 5 and 9 AM. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the potential of a few tornadoes and damaging winds near these areas as the storms move through.

Forecasters and Emergency Operation officials recommend residents have multiple ways of receiving warnings, including via cell phone, radio, and television. Residents should be prepared to seek shelter in the lowest level of their home, in an interior room, and away from windows. Those who rely on public storm shelters as a refuge should check to see if they are available because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Update as of 6:10 AM ET / 5:10 AM CT:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch from roughly Marianna to Panama City and westward until noon today. A line of thunderstorms is beginning to organize over Mississippi and is moving east around 50 mph. If the current motion holds, the line would be on track to arrive in:

Pensacola 7-9 AM
Panama City 11 AM - 2 PM
Tallahassee 3-6 PM

A few showers and storms are expected ahead of the main line, and could also pose a risk of gusty winds and isolated tornadoes. However, most of the straight-line wind damage reports are expected to come from the squall line as it arrives.

Original Post on Thursday Evening:

Waves of downpours and strong thunderstorms may pose a risk of multiple hazards to the Panhandle and Big Bend areas through Thursday.

Gusty thunderstorms were developing early Wednesday afternoon along a warm front in Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties ahead of the strong system. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center issued a “slight risk” (a level 2 risk) for the potential of isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts for Pensacola, Fort Walton, and Destin. An “enhanced risk” (level 3 out of 5) was issued for Panama City, Marianna, Tallahassee, Apalachicola, and surrounding areas for Thursday afternoon, where the greatest risk of strong thunderstorms is expected.

Occasional rain and storms Wednesday night may also enhance the threat of flooding. The National Weather Service posted Flash Flood Watches for much of the Panhandle, where 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Thursday evening. The agency said localized amounts greater than 5 inches are possible in a short period time, which could initiate the flooding.

Forecast models suggested the inclement weather would arrive in several bursts. Occasional bouts of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday night as warm and humid air streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible with these first few stormy waves.

A separate, squall line of thunderstorms is expected to form Thursday morning along a cold front, sweeping through the Panhandle during the day. The line is more likely to contain damaging straight-line winds, but isolated tornadoes may also spin up within the line. Here are the estimated times of arrival of the line:

Pensacola 6-9 AM
Panama City 11 AM - 2 PM
Tallahassee 3-6 PM

Even after the leading edge of the line moves through, additional rain is likely to fall Thursday evening before completely ending around midnight. A brief shot of cooler weather is forecast on Friday before temperatures return to normal over the weekend with sunny skies.

Meteorologists at the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network strongly encourage those in the path of these storms to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts Wednesday night into Thursday, should quick protective action be required.

A few strong thunderstorms are possible tonight into Friday in advance of a strong cold front moving through the Gulf coast states.

Humid, unstable air is returning from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the Florida Panhandle Thursday afternoon and is expected to spread into the Big Bend on Friday. Winds high in the atmosphere are expected to be strong enough to cause a few strong thunderstorms. A few pockets of damaging gusts and an isolated tornado or two are possible, but the airmass is not expected to become unstable enough to produce a more widespread outbreak.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms are forecast Thursday night into Friday. The latest projections from high-resolution computer models — which are uniquely suited to predict thunderstorms — indicate the greatest risk for strong thunderstorms is from daybreak Friday in the Pensacola and Destin areas to near Panama City and Marianna during the midday hours, and perhaps reaching Tallahassee and Apalachicola late in the afternoon or early Friday evening.

Heavy rain along and ahead of the front has prompted the National Weather Service to issue Flood Watches from parts of Louisiana to Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and northwest Georgia. 3 to 6 inches of rain is forecast in these areas, where flooding of some rivers and roads is possible. Thunderstorms with strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible in many of these same areas.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center issued a “marginal risk” for flash flooding over the Panhandle and Big Bend tonight into Friday, but the flood threat is expected to be lower than areas to the north and west. 1 to 2 inches of rain are forecast within the marginal risk area.

A surge of colder air is expected behind the front this weekend. Forecasters say temperatures may dip to the mid to upper 30s early Sunday morning, with afternoon highs staying in the 50s.