With the return of summer heat, splash pads, swimming pools and the beach remain some of the most popular ways to stay cool. Even seemingly tranquil water can pose unseen risks due to dangerous currents or water too shallow for diving. Drowning can even occur hours after leaving the water, a phenomenon known as ‘dry drowning.’

The state of Florida ranks 4th in drowning deaths for all ages, with roughly 2 deaths annually per 100,000 residents. When considering only children 0 to 9 years old, the numbers are worse, with Florida leading the nation in annual deaths. According to the Florida Department of Health, between 2020 and 2022, over 200 children 5 years old or younger died of drowning.

Lifesaving professionals will recommend that even expert level swimmers follow the “buddy system” to reduce drowning risks. Outdoor waterways can pose more significant swimming risks, with strong currents that will not be present in pools. When swimming at the ocean, the greatest danger comes from rip currents, which are strong narrow currents that flow away from the beach and out to sea. At public beaches, there are flags that will be posted with the latest rip current information. When there is a green flag, it represents calm conditions. A yellow flag represents a “medium” hazard for rip currents. When there is a red flag, strong rip currents are present and a double red flag means that the beach is closed for swimming.

If you find yourself in a rip current, it’s important to remain calm. Your instinct may be to try to swim against the rip current and try to swim directly to the beach. However, it’s important to remember that a rip current is both strong and narrow. Because of the power of a rip current, the water is often moving away from the land faster than a person can swim, and fighting the current will be futile. The key to escaping a rip current is remembering that a rip current is narrow. By swimming parallel, or along the beach, you can swim to the safety of calmer water outside of the rapidly moving rip current.

Sometimes, drowning deaths can occur after leaving the water in rare cases. This is called “dry drowning” or “secondary drowning” and happens after a swimmer struggles and is rescued. After returning to land, the near-drowning victim can have water that has entered their body through the nose and mouth and sometimes even into the lungs. This excess water can reduce the ability of the lungs to exchange carbon dioxide and oxygen, and the oxygen levels in the blood can drop to fatal levels.

Parents of children who are involved in an incident where their child is rescued from a near drowning incident must be alert for the signs of dry drowning. Symptoms to watch for after the child leaves the water are coughing, trouble breathing, chest pains or is irritability. If a child shows these symptoms after a water rescue, experts recommend seeking medical attention.

If it has seemed a bit cooler than usual this winter, it is not just your imagination. For example, in the first 21 days of February, 71% of those days were cooler than average in Tampa, 67% were cooler than average in Ft. Meyers, and 62% of those February days were cooler than average in Jacksonville. This winter, the ocean circulation pattern known as ENSO, or the El Nino Southern Oscillation has been in the El Nino phase.

When in an El Nino phase, the impacts in Florida actually are different from much of the nation. That's because the southern branch of the jet stream is more active in an El Nino winter, driving more cold fronts into Florida. In a Florida winter, during an El Nino pattern, the temperatures are cooler than average and precipitation is higher. Due to the lag between ocean patterns and the atmosphere, the strong measured El Nino in January shows up in February data.

The extended forecast for March shows this transition underway, with Florida and the Gulf Coast remaining a bit cooler than average and wetter. The El Nino indicators measured were stronger in January, and have weakened in February and are forecast to fully reverse this summer and the pattern will move into the La Nina phase.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Nina Watch, meaning a transition to La Nina is expected to occur over the next several months into the summer, that will mean less wind shear in tropical waters. The lack of strong upper level winds during La Nina summers to disrupt the flow around developing tropical storms means higher numbers of storms, and storms that could grow into larger, more powerful hurricanes. The combination of warmer tropical waters and more favorable La Nina upper level winds expected this summer are indicators that we can expect another active hurricane season. That does not need that Florida will necessarily experience numerous major hurricanes this season, but it does mean that we will be more likely to see higher numbers of stronger tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, and as every Floridian knows, it only takes one storm.

A frontal boundary sliding into the Southeast will begin to enhance thunderstorm activity across North Florida late Thursday and Friday, then potentially produce more widespread rain and thunder across portions of Central and South Florida Saturday and Sunday.

The storm system might also acquire tropical characteristics as it moves offshore into the Atlantic Ocean by early next week.

Thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage, small hail and waterspouts are possible just ahead of the front Thursday evening in northeast Florida, then again Friday across a large section of North and Central Florida. The Storm Prediction Center placed a small section of Northeast Florida under a "marginal risk" (level 1 out of 5) for wind damage Thursday afternoon and evening. 

Friday's storms will be moving unusually fast for this time of year, with clusters of activity propagating in generally a north-to-south fashion, along with some backing to the southwest. Here are Friday's most likely arrival times for the storms in a few select cities or regions:

• Lake City, Jacksonville: 4 to 7 pm
• Gainesville, Ocala, Orlando: 5 to 9 pm
• Space and Treasure Coasts: 6 to 10 pm
• Nature Coast, Lakeland, Tampa: 7 to 11 pm

The storm coverage Saturday will be more focused in Central Florida as the front continues to slide south, although the cells likely won't be as strong or as widespread since the front will be weakening. The greatest concentration of Saturday's storm activity will be near and just south of a line from Tampa to Melbourne, sliding down into portions of South Florida by the early evening. Drier air behind the boundary will keep rain chances lower than normal Saturday across much of North Florida and in the Panhandle.

The weakening front is expected to stall across South Florida Sunday, where numerous showers and thunderstorms are also likely to develop by the afternoon and evening hours, generally speaking from Naples to Miami. Higher-than-normal rain chances will also exist Sunday in the Florida Keys, whereas much of North and Central Florida will be behind the front and largely rain-free.

The frontal boundary sagging across Florida this weekend is tied to a larger area of low pressure that is forecast to move into the Atlantic Ocean early next week, where the National Hurricane Center says there's a "low chance" it could acquire enough tropical characteristics to become a tropical depression or storm in the next five days. If this were to occur, long range forecast data suggests upper-level winds might be too strong or chaotic to allow it to become very organized. However, weak steering currents might eventually allow the system and its associated moisture to drift back in the direction of Florida later in the week.

Deeper moisture is back on the move into Florida this week, making way for numerous thunderstorms to replace the recent stretch of drier weather over the next few days across most of the state.

A slow-moving front drifting through the Southeast is forecast to induce a more dominant southwesterly wind, drawing deeper moisture into the atmosphere from the Gulf of Mexico toward the front. The moisture will intersect the lift from the nearby front in the Florida Panhandle and along the I-10 corridor from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, which is where showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread through midweek.

A second area of higher rain chances will develop this week along a progressive Gulf Coast sea breeze that will likely trigger broken lines of cells on its journey inland each afternoon. Where this boundary interacts with a pinned Atlantic Coast sea breeze is where stronger and more numerous storms could develop by the early evening hours, which will likely be near and just west of the the I-95 corridor from Jacksonville to Miami, including the Orlando metro area.

This type of pattern generally leads to drier weather immediately along the Gulf Coast from Florida's Big Bend to Tampa, including areas along the Nature Coast and near or west of I-75 in North and Central Florida. The added cloud cover from the more widespread thunderstorm activity also tends to limit afternoon heating and reduce daytime highs, which is also in the forecast for most Florida cities. The deeper moisture and stalled front is forecast to linger across much of Florida through at least Thursday, before the front weakens and higher pressure builds in Friday or Saturday.

Florida is no stranger to strong afternoon thunderstorms in July, but they’re likely to be more widespread than usual Monday afternoon and evening.

The greatest risk for widespread thunderstorms is over west-central Florida, centered on the Tampa/St. Pete metropolitan area. However, these strong storms may also occur as far south as the Fort Myers area and as far north and east as the Orlando, Gainesville, and Jacksonville areas. Scattered thunderstorms are likely over the Big Bend and Panhandle areas, but widespread severe weather is somewhat more unlikely in those areas.

A combination of several factors are contributing to the strong thunderstorm potential: an upper-level trough near the Atlantic coast is forecast to move westward over the state and a moist southeasterly wind pattern will tend to focus the sea breeze storms over the western half of the peninsula. Cool air high in the atmosphere from the trough will move over top of the typically warm, humid, and unstable air mass over the state, which will contribute to the risk for hail and damaging gusts from the strongest storm clusters.

Areawide rainfall is expected to average around an inch, focused on the western half of the peninsula, but more localized torrential rain is highly probable. Rainfall over the past month is running twice to nearly three times the average from Interstate 4 northward into the Ocala, Gainesville, and Lake City areas. As little as 2 to 3 inches of rain in one hour may trigger flash flooding from Lee county northward to Tampa and toward Gainesville. These communities received heavy rain from Tropical Storm Elsa last week. Frequent lightning, as always, poses a concern. Lightning can strike in areas where it is not raining, which may cause those outside off guard.

The first storms are likely to develop along or west of Interstate 95 on the east coast around or shortly before noon. They will reach the Fort Myers and Naples area early Monday afternoon. The Orlando area is on track to see the strongest storms during the early and mid afternoon hours of Monday, spreading to the Tampa and St. Pete areas mostly after 3 o’clock before moving into the Gulf around sunset. A similar pattern is likely over the northern peninsula: storms in the Jacksonville to Daytona areas in the early afternoon will reach Interstate 75 during the mid to late afternoon and finally to the Nature Coast by early evening.

Heavy rain and flash flooding may result from storms in the Big Bend and Panhandle, too. The storms along the sea breeze should develop around 1 o’clock and spread northward to the Georgia and Alabama state lines shortly before 4 o’clock. Conditions have been wetter than normal over most of the spring, especially over the western Panhandle, and from Tropical Storm Claudette in June.

A similar pattern is on tap for Tuesday. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms is likely over the interior of the Florida Peninsula during the early afternoon and then favoring the west coast later in the afternoon and early evening hours. There are signs some drier air from the east may limit the number of storms Thursday or Friday.

Elsa made landfall as a tropical storm late Wednesday morning along Florida's Nature Coast in Taylor county with top sustained winds of 65 mph. Its winds are expected to weaken, but flash flooding and isolated tornadoes are possible Wednesday afternoon, especially in North-Central and Northeast Florida.

A feeder band far removed from the center of Elsa produced some of the state's heaviest rainfall totals in parts of Southwest Florida. Estimates from radar and gauges are showing between 6 and 10 inches of rain has fallen from eastern Manatee and Hardee counties southward into Desoto, Charlotte, and Lee counties.

2 to 5 inches of rain has fallen in the Tampa/St. Pete metro areas east into Polk county, with localized amounts greater than a half foot in a small part of northwestern Hillsborough and southern Pasco counties. So far, rain amounts have been limited along most of the Atlantic coast, which has been farthest removed from the center of Elsa.

Tropical storm force gusts have been observed in Pinellas county northward to Cedar Key, between 45 and 60 mph at times Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Strong gusts near the St. Johns River in Jacksonville and along the beachfront in Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties have been near 40 mph as of late Wednesday morning.

Isolated tornadoes remain possible near the I-10 corridor from the Live Oak and Lake City areas to near Jacksonville, but the threat is slowly expected to diminish late Wednesday afternoon. Areas of flash flooding, along with gusts of 30 to 40 mph, were still possible from Ocala and Gainesville eastward to the First Coast Wednesday afternoon.

Residual bands are possible anywhere over the Peninsula until about midnight Wednesday night before Elsa pulls away into the Carolinas. There are currently no other areas in the tropical Atlantic that are likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next week.

Update 8:30 AM EDT Wednesday: Wind gusts to 57 mph have been reported at Cedar Key shortly after 7 o'clock this morning. Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued south of Sarasota county, but continue farther north along the coast. The center of Elsa is 35 miles from Cedar Key and it's expected to make landfall along the Dixie or Taylor county coasts around midday. Much of the weather extends east of the center, including flooding rain in the Fort Myers area, heavy rain from The Villages to Ocala and Gainesville, and heavier bands along the east coast from the Space Coast north to near St. Augustine.

Update 5:30 AM EDT Wednesday: Elsa has top sustained winds of 60 mph and is located 50 miles south-southwest of Cedar Key and 70 miles west-northwest of Tampa. Hurricane Warnings continue for Citrus county north to the Steinhatchee River.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect west of Steinhatchee River to the Ochlockonee River, and from Hernando county south to Englewood.

The heaviest rain band is trailing the circulation, from the Fort Myers area north to Lakeland, Orlando, The Villages and northward toward Ocala, Gainesville, and the Nature Coast. Isolated tornadoes and flash flooding are likely in the band. Occasional gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible.

Heavy rain is expected to arrive in Northeast Florida and the Jacksonville area after sunrise and lasting through the day today.

The rain bands will begin to diminish around midnight as the storm moves into the Carolinas.

Update 2:15 AM EDT Wednesday: Elsa is a tropical storm once again 60 miles west of Tampa and 95 miles south-southwest of Cedar Key. It has top sustained winds of 70 mph and is moving toward the north near 14 mph. Heavy rain bands are causing flooding from the Nature Coast south to the Tampa/St. Pete metro area and into Polk county before trailing southward into Manatee, Desoto, Hardee, eastern Manatee, and eastern Sarasota counties.  

Update 8 pm EDT Tuesday: Elsa has regained hurricane status, located 100 miles southwest of Tampa Bay. The storm was moving north at 14 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter was en route to investigate the hurricane, and the next full update from the National Hurricane Center will be released at 11 pm EDT.  There have been no major changes to the forecast track or impacts from Elsa, and those are outlined in the original story below.

Update 5 pm EDT Tuesday: There were no significant changes to Elsa's intensity or forecast track. The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Seven Mile Bridge in the Florida Keys was discontinued.  The storm continued to produce winds up to 70 mph and was moving north at 10 mph. 

There is an increasing risk of numerous power outages from Elsa near the Gulf Coast from Clearwater to Cedar Key Tuesday night, with spotty power outages possible farther inland across portions of North-Central Florida Wednesday.

A Hurricane Warning was issued from Steinhatchee River to Egmont Key, as Tropical Storm Elsa is now expected to become a hurricane prior to landfall along the Nature Coast early Wednesday.

As of 2 pm Tuesday, Tropical Storm Elsa was found to have maximum winds of 70 mph, which was based on Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observations and nearby radar data. While conditions are not conducive for significant strengthening, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the watch to a warning in a special advisory Tuesday afternoon, stating that "only a slight increase in intensity" would result in Elsa becoming a hurricane.

Shortly before the special advisory was issued, a Tornado Watch was also issued for much of South Florida and Central Florida until 11 pm EDT Tuesday evening.

There were no significant changes to the forecast track or overall impacts expected from Tropical Storm Elsa with the special advisory. As expected, the storm has begun to move north, where a path parallel to the west coast of Florida will continue Tuesday evening, followed by an eventual landfall along the Nature Coast early Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning continues from Bonita Beach northward to the Apalachee Bay, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible from the persistent onshore winds on Elsa's eastern side. Swift water flooding of 3 to 5 feet above dry ground is possible from Aucilla River to Englewood, including all of the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay. A 2 to 4 foot storm surge is expected for areas farther south to Bonita Beach, with 1 to 3 feet of flooding possible south of there into the Florida Bay and Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues for all Gulf Coast counties in Florida from Flamingo northward to the Ocholockonee River, and from Craig Key westward to Key West. The warning has also been expanded eastward to include inland areas of North Florida from Lake City to Gainesville to Ocala.  Trropical storm force winds in the 40 to 60 mph range are likely in the warned areas as the heaviest rain bands from Elsa rotate through. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible farther inland across sections of north and central Florida, also colocated with the heaver rain bands, where the watches are in effect.

A few tornadoes may occur from Tropical Storm Elsa's circulation as far east as the Atlantic Coast Tuesday afternoon . Some of the outer rain bands and squalls may acquire rotation as they pinwheel farther away from the storm's center and encounter a more unstable environment from less cloud cover and warmer afternoon temperatures. Areas most at risk for this to occur are roughly near and east of the I-75 corridor in North Florida and along and east of the Florida Turnpike in Central Florida. Waterspouts and brief tornadoes may also occur from the outer rain bands closer to Elsa's center along Florida's west coast too.

Flash flooding is possible from Tropical Storm Elsa, although the steady forward motion of the storm should prevent it from becoming a widespread hazard. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western half of the Florida peninsula, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible. 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible across the eastern side of the state and in eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle from Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to weaken after the storm moves inland across North Florida Wednesday morning, likely being downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it crosses the border into southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon. However, enhancements to the typical afternoon downpours may continue well into Wednesday and Thursday across the Florida peninsula thanks to a deep flow of moisture on the southern and eastern side of the tropical storm

Update as of 11:00 AM Tuesday:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from the Ochlockonee River west to Indian Pass in the Florida Panhandle.

Top sustained winds remain near 60 mph and Elsa's forward motion is slower -- toward the north-northwest near 10 mph. The slower storm motion has delayed the arrival of tropical storm force winds along the Collier, Lee, and Charlotte county coasts until this afternoon. The arrival of tropical storm winds are expected in Sarasota, Manatee, and the Tampa/St. Pete metro areas early this evening. These winds are likely to arrive near the Nature Coast overnight and into North-Central and Northeast Florida Wednesday morning. Wind gusts as high as 65 mph are possible from the Tampa/St. Pete areas northward into the Nature Coast.

A storm surge of 3 to 5 feet above normally dry ground is possible near the Tampa Bay area to the Nature Coast near the time of high tide during the wee-hours of Wednesday morning.

Isolated tornadoes are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday over much of the Florida Peninsula. 2 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of up to 8 inches may result in flash flooding, urban flooding, and minor river flooding anywhere in the Peninsula.

Strong wind gusts of 45 to 60 mph are possible as far inland as The Villages, Ocala, Gainesville, and Lake City during Wednesday morning, which may result in power outages. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Clay county and on the western side of Jacksonville, where wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible during the day Wednesday.

Update as of 5:30 AM Tuesday:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Egmont Key northward to the Steinhatchee River. Elsa is most likely to remain a tropical storm at landfall along Florida's Nature Coast early Wednesday morning, but there is a small chance it could reach hurricane status. Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the lower and middle Keys northward through the entire west coast of Florida to the Ochlockonee River in the Panhandle. Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass.

There is little change to the forecast track of Elsa. It is forecast to make landfall Wednesday morning along the Nature Coast. However, the forecast of the storm's center is indicated by the cone; significant effects will extend outside the cone and to the east of the center.

Original Story from 12:30 AM Tuesday:

Tropical Storm Elsa emerged over the warm waters of the Florida Straits Monday night, where some strengthening was expected as it reaches the Florida Keys Tuesday morning. Storm surge flooding and minor wind damage are becoming increasing likely along Florida's Gulf Coast from the Big Bend to Naples Tuesday into Wednesday as Elsa passes by.

As of 11 pm Monday, Tropical Storm Elsa's maximum sustained winds were up to 60 mph and the storm was moving NNW at 12 mph. The forecast track has remained largely unchanged, with a turn to the north expected Tuesday west of Fort Myers and a path parallel to the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and eventual landfall along the Nature Coast or Big Bend regions.

The arrival time of Elsa's tropical storm coastal impacts are summarized below:

• Key West: pre-dawn hours Tuesday
• Naples/Fort Myers: sunrise Tuesday
• Sarasota/Bradenton: late morning Tuesday
• Tampa/Lakeland: midday Tuesday
• Nature Coast: Tuesday night
• Big Bend: early Wednesday morning

A Storm Surge Warning was issued late Monday afternoon from Bonita Beach northward to the Apalachee Bay, where a life-threatening storm surge is possible from the persistent onshore winds on Elsa's eastern side. Swift water flooding of 3 to 5 feet above dry ground is possible from Aucilla River to Englewood, including all of the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay. A 2 to 4 foot storm surge is expected for areas farther south to Bonita Beach, with 1 to 3 feet of flooding possible south of there into the Florida Bay and Florida Keys.

A Tropical Storm Warning continues for all Gulf Coast counties in Florida from Flamingo northward to the Ocholockonee River, and from Craig Key westward to Key West. Tropical storm force winds in the 40 to 60 mph range are likely in the warned areas as the heaviest rain bands from Elsa rotate through.

A few tornadoes may occur from Tropical Storm Elsa's circulation as far east as the Atlantic Coast Tuesday afternoon . Some of the outer rain bands and squalls may acquire rotation as they pinwheel farther away from the storm's center and encounter a more unstable environment from less cloud cover and warmer afternoon temperatures. Areas most at risk for this to occur are roughly near and east of the I-75 corridor in North Florida and along and east of the Florida Turnpike in Central Florida. Waterspouts and brief tornadoes may also occur from the outer rain bands closer to Elsa's center along Florida's west coast too. 

Flash flooding is possible from Tropical Storm Elsa, although the steady forward motion of the storm should prevent it from becoming a widespread hazard. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western half of the Florida peninsula, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches possible. 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible across the eastern side of the state and in eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle from Elsa.

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to weaken after the storm moves inland across North Florida Wednesday morning, likely being downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it crosses the border into southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon. However, enhancements to the typical afternoon downpours may continue well into Wednesday and Thursday across the Florida peninsula thanks to a deep flow of moisture on the southern and eastern side of the tropical storm.

Update as of 5 AM Monday:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Englewood and now includes Fort Myers. Tropical Storm Watches have also been extended northward to include the Nature Coast to the Aucilla River. Storm Surge Watches remain in effect from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

Tropical storm conditions are likely, especially in the lower Keys, starting tonight. Those conditions are on track to spread northward into Collier county during the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday and then into the Fort Myers and Charlotte county areas during the mid and late morning hours of Tuesday. The onset of tropical storm winds are most likely Tuesday afternoon in the Manatee and Sarasota county areas, reaching the Tampa/St. Pete metro late Tuesday afternoon. Conditions are likely to deteriorate along the Nature Coast Tuesday evening, when tropical storm conditions are possible there. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are likely along the coast, with 40 to 50 mph gusts possible within the watch and warning areas inland with the strongest bands.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are likely over much of the Florida Peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday night over South Florida and the Keys, and brief tornades may also spin up on Tuesday into Tuesday night anywhere in the Florida Peninsula as rain bands rotate through the state.

Update as of 5 PM Sunday:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward and includes much of the Florida west coast to the Anclote River. The Fort Myers, Sarasota, and Tampa areas are included Tropical Storm Watch. In addition, a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward, and Watches continue for the remainder of the Keys to the east of Craig Key.

Water levels may rise to between 1 and 3 feet above normally dry ground in places from the middle and lower Keys and northward to Bonita Beach. Water levels may increase to 2 to 4 feet above dry ground on Tuesday from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

Original Story from 11 AM Sunday: 

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued late Sunday morning for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Watches have been expanded northward to cover a large area of South Florida. The watches include the Keys from east of Craig Key northward, including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect from Flamingo north to Bonita Beach, including Naples and Marco Island.

Tropical Storm Elsa's torrid pace slowed considerably Sunday while it brings heavy rain and tropical storm conditions to Jamaica and Cuba.

The storm's motion in excess of 30 mph early Saturday morning had slowed down to a little more than 10 mph Sunday morning. Tropical cyclones, on average, move between 10 and 15 mph, so Elsa is now moving at a pace that is more common. Tropical Storm Warnings continued over Jamaica and a large portion of Cuba, where tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on occasion through Monday. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible on the mountainous islands and on Haiti, where 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected. Isolated areas were expected to receive as much as 15 inches.

The storm itself has become disorganized in the face of strong wind shear and its close pass to Haiti on Saturday. Its interaction with Cuba Sunday night and Monday is likely to cause additional weakening before it emerges over the Florida Straits Monday night. A small amount of re-strengthening is possible in the Gulf of Mexico, but strong wind shear is expected to keep the heaviest rain and winds east of the circulation center and most likely prevent Elsa from regaining hurricane strength.

The first rain bands from Elsa over the Florida Keys are expected Monday afternoon, where Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect. Tropical storm force winds are likely, particularly over the lower and middle Keys late Monday afternoon into Monday night. The slower storm motion means any tropical storm force winds over South Florida would hold off until overnight Monday or at first light on Tuesday, favoring the Gulf side.

Tropical storm conditions are possible as far north as Tampa and Orlando Tuesday evening, and then from the Nature Coast into North-Central and Northeast Florida overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. If tropical storm winds were to occur, they would be more likely on the Gulf of Mexico side of the peninsula Tuesday night, but would then shift to Florida's First Coast on Wednesday as the storm turns more toward the northeast.

Heavy rainfall is likely to be the greatest impact from Elsa. Widespread rainfall of 2 to 5 inches are forecast directly from Elsa, which may result in areas of urban flash flooding and minor river flooding over the Florida Peninsula early this week. A separate front has been producing heavy rainfall over the holiday weekend, particularly from the Tampa/St. Petersburg areas northward to Orlando, Gainesville, and Jacksonville metro areas. These areas have had almost twice their average rainfall since the beginning of June and additional rain from Elsa would increase the possibility of flooding, especially in these areas.

Conditions are likely to improve by Wednesday evening as Elsa begins to move toward the eastern Carolinas. 

Update as of 8 AM Sunday:

Elsa's forward motion has slowed to 13 mph -- in contrast to nearly 30 mph on Saturday morning -- as it passes between Jamaica and Cuba Sunday morning. Top sustained winds are near 65 mph. There have been few changes to the forecast track, which takes Elsa over Cuba Sunday night and Monday and into the Gulf of Mexico Monday evening.

The most likely arrival times of tropical storm force winds in Florida are a little later because of the much slower forward motion. The Keys are most likely to see the arrival of tropical storm force winds Monday afternoon and over South Florida Monday night into early Tuesday morning. These winds may arrive in areas like Sarasota during the daylight hours of Tuesday morning, and then reach the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando Tuesday evening. The highest probability of tropical storm force conditions near the Gulf coastline, with lower probabilities farther inland toward the Orlando metropolitan area.

On its current track, tropical storm conditions could make it as far north as the Nature Coast and toward Gainesville, Jacksonville, and St. Augustine overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The storm's exact path and intensity will determine whether these areas receive tropical storm conditions, and that remains uncertain at this time.

Update as of 5 PM Saturday:

Tropical Storm Elsa is very close to southwestern coast of Haiti. Hurricane Warnings continue for the south coast of Haiti and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the north coast of that country. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for much of Cuba and Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of Cuba also.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm conditions are possible as soon as Monday in the Keys and is likely to spread northward into South Florida late Monday into Monday night.

The forecast track has remained about the same as earlier, bring Elsa northward as a tropical storm near or over Florida Tuesday into Wednesday.

Original article from 11 AM Saturday:

Elsa weakened to a tropical storm less than 50 miles south of the coast of the Dominican Republic Saturday morning.

Elsa is rapidly churning west-northwestward through the Caribbean, where conditions were expected to deteriorate along the southern coast of Hispaniola Saturday. The mountainous terrain of the island is likely to enhance rainfall totals in spite of the storm's fast forward motion. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with locally higher amounts in excess of one foot, are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Similar rainfall amounts are possible Sunday into Monday in Jamaica and Cuba.

The storm's forward motion has been occasionally in excess of 30 mph from the flow around a strong high pressure ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Such a fast motion makes it difficult for Elsa's circulation near the ocean's surface to be vertically aligned with its mid-level circulation some 10,000 to 15,000 feet above the ocean. There is also some wind shear from the northwest which is preventing the storm from intensifying. 

Elsa is forecast to reach the outer skirts of the high pressure ridge on Sunday. As it does so, its forward motion is expected to slow down considerably, perhaps at half the speed it is moving on Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong trough of low pressure is moving off the Southeast coast of the United States. This trough is responsible for a front slipping unusually far south into North Florida for early July. The trough will leave behind what is called a "weakness" in the subtropical ridge. Tropical storms and hurricanes move toward the path of least resistance -- toward these weaknesses in the flow. That will cause Elsa to turn more toward the north, in the general direction of the Florida Peninsula early this upcoming week.

This forecast path will take Elsa near or directly over the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, in particular. Elsa's core circulation is small, so it is highly susceptible to weakening if it interacts with this rugged terrain, which is becoming increasingly probable. 

Regardless of Elsa's precise strength, heavy rainfall is becoming more likely over the Florida Peninsula and Big Bend starting on Monday and lasting until midweek. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts, may fall near the path of Elsa. Since many areas are already receiving heavy rain this weekend from a cold front, there will be a heightened risk of flash flooding. If Elsa does not spend as much time over the islands of the Caribbean or is able to move over the Gulf of Mexico, it may also be able to produce tropical storm force winds over parts of the state.

Heavy rainfall may spread as far north as coastal Georgia and the eastern Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday as the storm accelerates toward the northeast.