Tropical Storm Isaias has continued to maintain its strength with maximum sustained wind speeds near 70 mph but there is still a chance that this system could strengthen slightly as it continues northward.

Isaias is expected to come very close to parts of the Space Coast overnight Sunday and into Monday with tropical storm-force winds possible in areas around Cape Canaveral. Isaias will continue tracking towards the north-northwest slowly overnight Sunday before paralleling the First Coast Monday morning.

Rain bands are expected to continue across much of the Sunshine State through Monday with some breezy conditions. The heavy rains and winds are forecast to remain offshore with only immediate coastlines receiving a few tropical storm-force gusts.

Conditions are expected to improve across the coastlines of the Space Coast Monday early afternoon with First Coast areas clearing out by the evening. Isaias is forecast to turn more westerly beginning Monday and approach the Carolinas.

A large area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean Sea is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical development over the next five days. While not currently a significant threat to the United States, there is growing interest in what happens to this potential development when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Conditions are not particularly favorable for a tropical cyclone to form in the next 48 hours, but that could change once it crosses through the Yucatan channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday or Monday. Atmospheric conditions there are forecast to become more favorable for a tropical depression to form. The sea surface temperatures are also quite warm, potentially further aiding in the system's development.

Long range forecast data is a bit split on two different scenarios (or outcomes) for this disturbance, ranging from just an area of tropical moisture and heavy rain to potentially a tropical storm. Therefore, it's far too early to speculate where this system might track or how strong it will be, and any forecasts related to potential impacts to Florida are just not credible at this time. However, it's worth noting that the Caribbean is usually a favorable location for tropical cyclone origins in October, and historically, when they move into the Gulf of Mexico, more than half of them cross the Florida peninsula. The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn't officially end until November 30.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four systems in the Atlantic Basin, two of which have a greater than 50 percent chance of developing in the next five days according to an outlook they issued Friday afternoon. None, however, are an immediate threat to Florida.

The closest disturbance to the Sunshine State is a weak area of low pressure that was located about 100 miles southeast of Bermuda. The system, referred to as Invest 98 for the purpose of modeling, wasn't very organized Friday, but conditions could become marginally favorable for slow development as it moves over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle of next week. Invest 98 poses no threat to Florida, and even if it nears portions of the Mid-Atlantic states, it will likely be weak and swept out to see by an approaching front.

Further east, at roughly the same latitude as Invest 98, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop this weekend over the north-central Atlantic. While conditions are expected to be favorable for subtropical or tropical development in a few days, the storm system is unlikely to affect any land areas as it meanders over water.
 

At much lower latitudes, just east of the Windward Islands, a tropical wave (referred to as Invest 97) shows promise of developing in the near term, but its long range prognosis is questionable. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to prevent significant development of Invest 97 as it moves west-northwest into the eastern Caribbean through the weekend, where it could even dissipate by Monday or Tuesday.

In the far east Atlantic, a strong tropical wave (Invest 99) was showing signs of organization about 600 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for slow development early next week, when a tropical depression or storm could form. Long range forecast data suggests Invest 99 has the potential to move all the way across the Atlantic over the next 7 to 10 days, but it too is no immediate threat to Florida.

The traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season was September 10th, but historical data suggests there is a subtle second rise in the frequency of tropical storms in early October. As of Friday, there have been ten named storms and five hurricanes. Florence has been the only Major Hurricane so far this season, and the next named storm would acquire the name Kirk. 

Summer officially ends Saturday. To Floridians, it will probably just be another hot September day.

A stifling late-summer heat wave has gripped most of the Sunshine State this month, and there is little relief in sight through the weekend.
 

As of Wednesday (the 19th), 41 warm weather records have been broken and seven cities are currently on pace for their warmest September in recorded history. While Septembers are typically still summer-like in Florida, the 2018 numbers have been averaging 3 to 5 degrees above normal statewide the entire month. Average afternoon highs this time of year are generally in the upper 80's and overnight lows are often near 70.

The following records have been tied or broken at the official climate reporting stations through the state, listed in alphabetical order.

• A record high of 94 degrees was set three consecutive days (Sept. 14-16) in Daytona Beach, and a record warm minimum temperature was established on Sept. 4. x
• Gainesville has been one of the hottest spots in the state, where as of Thursday afternoon, the mercury had soared to 95 degrees or higher for eight consecutive days. Two record highs have been set this month, with the highest occurring on September 15 when the airport hit 97 degrees. Earlier this week, three consecutive record warm minimum temperatures were broken, one in particular that was extremely warm. The morning of September 16th was the warmest in over 100 years, with a 7 am temperature of 81 and a heat index (what it felt like) of 88°.
• A record high was recorded in Key West on September 17, 18 and 20, with the hottest all-time record high tied for a sixth time at 95 degrees on the 20th. A record warm minimum was also set on the 18th at 85°.
• Melbourne set a new record high of 96 degrees on the 15th, and a new warm minimum on the 5th with a balmy 81 degrees.
• Miami International Airport tied a warm minimum temperature of 81 degrees on the 4th and 17th.
• A warm minimum temperature record was set on November 4th in Naples (79°), and then tied on consecutive mornings September 16 (79°) and 17 (78°).
• The record warm minimum temperature was tied in Orlando on the 5th (77°) and 18th (76°).
• Three consecutive days of warm minimum temperatures were recorded in Saint Petersburg. The warmest night occurred on Sept. 16 with 83 degrees. A record high of 93 degrees was tied on Sept. 12.
• The Sanford-Orlando International airport set nine new records for high and warm minimum temperatures. From Sept. 15-19, there were five consecutive warm minimums. The warmest night ever in September occurred on Sept. 16 at 80 degrees.
• Record warm minimum temperatures were set in Tampa Sept. 15-17, with the mercury only falling to 84 degrees on the 16th. This was one degree shy of the all-time warmest night in September, which is 85 degrees. A new record high of 95 was set on both September 12 and 13.
• Vero Beach tied their record high of 95 degrees on the 15th, then again at 94 degrees on the 19th.

While a significant cool down isn't expected anytime soon, some subtle relief will likely arrive this weekend thanks to slight shift in the pattern. A stronger breeze from the Atlantic Ocean is expected, which will knock temperatures down just a bit across the peninsula by Saturday. Afternoon highs are expected to be closer to normal just in time for the start of fall, which officially arrives Saturday at 9:54 pm EDT.

Florence rapidly intensified into a "potentially catastrophic" Category 4 storm Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center said in a special statement at 12 pm. This was based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft's most recent pass through the eye, which found maximum sustained winds near 130 mph and a central pressure of 946 mb. The storm was located 925 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, or 1230 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina, and moving west at 13 mph.

Major Hurricane Florence will likely threaten portions of the North and South Carolina coast with life-threatening surge, extreme wind, and flooding rains on Thursday. Hurricane Florence is then likely to slow down or even stall across the Piedmont this weekend, putting millions at risk for extreme flooding from South Carolina to Virginia.

Even though the center of Florence is likely to stay hundreds of miles away from Florida, its large and powerful circulation is expected to send ocean swells all the way to Florida's Atlantic coast this week. In a special statement from the National Weather Service Jacksonville, Meteorologist Cindy Elsenheimer said the risk of life-threatening rip currents along area beaches will “increase as Florence gets closer” by midweek. She also advised boaters and mariners to use caution in nearby adjacent waters where building waves and rough surf could make it difficult to operate small vessels. In addition to the waves, the persistent onshore flow and tidal rises due to a new moon will elevate the chance for flooding in flood-prone areas of coastal communities through Thursday at times of high tide.

Hurricane Florence strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 3 storm in less than 12 hours, which is rare but explicitly forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Sunday. The presence of warm ocean temperatures and relatively light winds aloft created an environment favorable for such intensification. Conditions near Florence are expected to remain favorable for additional strengthening through Wednesday, when the season's first major hurricane is likely to become a Category 4 storm.

As Florence approaches land, the hurricane's wind field is expected to grow in geographic size with time, increasing the risks for storm surge and inland wind threats. The Storm Surge unit from the National Hurricane Center advised on Twitter they would likely issue a Storm Surge Watch for portions of the South Carolina coast by Tuesday morning.
 

In his key messages Monday, NHC Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake said fluctuations in intensity are possible as the storm approaches land due to eye wall replacement cycles, but regardless of its exact intensity, he had “increasing confidence” that Florence will be a large and dangerous hurricane at landfall. The average track error from the National Hurricane Center four days out is about 140 nautical miles, and the dangerous hazards from Florence will extend well away from the center.

Forecast confidence is higher than normal with Florence through Wednesday, lending credence to the idea it will be approaching the coast of North or South Carolina by Wednesday night. However, specifics on where and when it might come ashore, where it might go next, or if it stalls are too difficult to pin down at this time. A fleet of aircraft from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserves have been surveying the storm's lower and upper-level conditions, providing valuable data that will be considered in future forecasts. 

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network is also keeping a close eye on Hurricane Isaac, which was churning through the central Atlantic with maximum winds of 75 mph Monday afternoon. Isaac is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Thursday, but the National Hurricane Center has expressed a higher than normal uncertainty on its eventual track and strength beyond Wednesday.  At the present time, Isaac, nor any of the other tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, pose an immediate threat to Florida.

Florence became a hurricane again Sunday morning, and is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Monday. There is a growing concern that Florence will be a dangerous, slow-moving and significant threat to the Mid-Atlantic states later this week.

At this time, direct impacts from Hurricane Florence are not expected in Florida. However, large ocean swells will begin arriving along many of the Sunshine State's Atlantic beaches Monday. As a result, the rip current risk will be high for several days and minor coastal flooding will be possible during times of high tide.

In their 5 pm Sunday advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Florence was located 720 miles southeast of Bermuda and had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. According to Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake earlier Sunday, those wind speeds were likely to dramatically increase in the next 24 hours.

Coastal and inland residents from South Carolina to Virginia have been advised that the risk of life-threatening flooding from Hurricane Florence is increasing, both from storm surge and heavy rain. The major hurricane is projected to slow in forward speed and may even stall as it approaches the coast Thursday or Friday. Due to the typical uncertainties that exist on a storm's track and strength this far out, the storm surge unit from the National Hurricane Center has advised specific forecasts related to Florence would not be available until Tuesday.
 

A State of Emergency has been declared by the governor's of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia in preparation for direct impacts from Hurricane Florence. As of Sunday afternoon, tropical storm force winds were more likely to arrive along portions of the coasts of South and/or North Carolina by Thursday morning. Based on the current forecast at the time, hurricane force winds were most likely to come ashore Thursday night somewhere between Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and Morehead City, North Carolina. The range of uncertainty on a possible landfall extends from just north of Savannah, Georgia to about 100 miles north of Norfolk, Virginia.

Gordon may be gone, but there's no doubt the heart of hurricane season is here. Florence is a potential hurricane threat to the Mid-Atlantic states next week, and two other tropical waves are likely to develop behind it this weekend. One, in particular, could - emphasis on the word “could” - be a concern to Florida in about ten days.

Florence became the season's first major hurricane Wednesday, but has since weakened to a tropical storm due to strong winds aloft interfering with its circulation. Those winds, often referred to as wind shear, are forecast to relax this weekend when the National Hurricane Center expects Florence to strengthen again into a hurricane. Florence could even become a major hurricane (again) as it moves in a general west-northwest direction and comes close to Bermuda Monday.
 

The National Hurricane Center has expressed a reasonable amount of confidence in the forecast track and strength of Florence over the next five days, but in a recent advisory Hurricane Specialist Eric Blake said the uncertainty beyond day 5 is “very large”. He went on to caution residents along the U.S. East Coast that it was too soon to determine “what, if any,” impacts Florence could have in those areas. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large ocean swells are likely to arrive along the beaches of the Mid-Atlantic states, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 

A vigorous tropical wave located about 500 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is likely to become the Atlantic Basin's eighth named storm by Saturday. The disturbance, labeled for the sake of forecast modeling as Invest 92, has the potential to become a long-lived tropical storm or hurricane over the next week to ten days as it moves slowly to the west. It is too early to speculate whether Invest 92 will become a threat to land, but it is worth noting that more than half of the runs from two reliable forecast models (the European and GFS) show it tracking into the eastern Caribbean by late next week. There is no consensus, however, on how organized or strong it might be at that time.

A third area of low pressure, now classified by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (PTC Eight), was moving away from the west coast of Africa Friday morning, already producing intense thunderstorm activity and showing signs of organization. PTC Eight is also forecast to become a tropical storm by Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Cabo Verde Islands. Long range forecast data on this system also shows a general westward movement into the central Atlantic over the next five days, then diverging greatly on whether Invest 93 will track all the way across the Atlantic or turn north.

Gordon is expected to make landfall tonight as the fourth named hurricane of the season. The strong tropical storm is forecast to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening as it moves northward. Conditions are favorable due to the warmer waters and the lack of strong winds aloft.

The outer rain bands of Gordon have been bringing squalls and heavy rain to the western Florida panhandle as the tropical storm moves closer to making landfall along the north-central Gulf coast in Mississippi tonight.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida line with a Tropical Storm Warning from the Alabama-Florida border to the Okaloosa-Walton county line.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 80 miles from the center of the storm. The strongest winds and largest storm surge are found on the right quadrant or eastern side of a tropical storm. This is due to the counter clockwise flow around the storm as it makes landfall.

The surge is accompanied by large waves as the winds push the water onshore on the east side. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is forecast from Navarre, Florida to Dauphin Island, AL and 3 to 5 feet from Shell Beach to Dauphin Island.
 

Total rainfall accumulation from Gordon is expected to be between 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida panhandle and southwest AL. Flash flooding could occur in some areas.

There is a risk this afternoon and tonight for a few tornadoes to develop near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle as the tropical system approaches landfall. 

Gordon is expected to make landfall tonight as the fourth named hurricane of the season. The strong tropical storm is predicted to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening as it moves northward. Conditions are favorable due to the warmer waters and the lack of strong winds aloft.

The outer rain bands of Gordon have been bringing squalls and heavy rain to the western Florida panhandle as the tropical storm moves closer to making landfall along the north-central Gulf coast in Mississippi tonight.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida line with a Tropical Storm Warning from the Alabama-Florida border to the Okaloosa-Walton county line.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 80 miles from the center of the storm. The strongest winds and largest storm surge are found on the right quadrant or eastern side of a tropical storm. This is due to the counter clockwise flow around the storm as it makes landfall.

The surge is accompanied by large waves as the winds push the water onshore on the east side. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is forecast from Navarre, Florida to Dauphin Island, AL and 3 to 5 feet from Shell Beach to Dauphin Island.

Total rainfall accumulation from Gordon is expected to be between 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida panhandle and southwest AL. Flash flooding could occur in some areas.

There is a risk this afternoon and tonight for a few tornadoes to develop near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle as the tropical system approaches landfall. 

Tropical Storm Gordon formed Monday morning near Key Largo, Florida and is expected to bring heavy rain, gusty winds and possible tornadoes to portions of South Florida Monday afternoon and night.

The storm is then likely to continue strengthening as it moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, before making landfall across the central Gulf Coast states Tuesday night.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued along the South Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for inland areas of Collier, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. A Flood Watch is in effect for those same counties through Monday evening.

Even though the center is officially over land, the swampy flat soil of South Florida may not be a deterrent to further strengthening. In fact, environmental and nearby oceanic conditions are favorable for steady strengthening over the next 24 hours, which is reflected in the official forecast. The National Hurricane Center is projecting Gordon to have winds up to 60 mph by the time it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Heavy rain bands are expected to continue at a steady pace for much of the day Monday across southeast Florida, where rainfall estimates since midnight were already over an inch in many areas. The rain will be picking up in intensity near Naples and Fort Myers Monday evening as the center of Gordon continues moving toward southwest Florida. Storm totals of 2 to 4 inches, locally up to six, are expected across a large area of Collier, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties where a Flood Watch continues through 11 pm.
 

An isolated tornado or waterspout is possible from the outer bands of Tropical Storm Gordon across much of South Florida Monday and Monday night. The risk is enhanced Monday afternoon near the Atlantic coastline from Fort Lauderdale to West Palm Beach where stronger individual thunderstorms may develop and move ashore. The area of greatest risk Monday night will shift to the west coast of Florida from Tampa to Fort Meyers as Tropical Storm Gordon begins to pull away.

Minor coastal flooding is possible Monday on the Atlantic coast south of West Palm Beach from onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph. Waves of 3 to 5 feet are expected, locally as high as 6 feet in some areas, and inland waterways will be choppy. There is also a high risk of rip currents at area beaches on both coasts through Tuesday from Tropical Storm Gordon. 

Tropical Storm Gordon is forecast to make landfall Tuesday night somewhere between eastern Louisiana and southern Alabama as a formidable tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center will be sending a plane to investigate Gordon Monday afternoon, hoping to use that data to refine future forecasts on the projected track and strength of the season's seventh named storm. While specifics on storm surge, possible wind damage and flooding aren't real clear just yet, most of Florida's peninsula is unlikely to experience significant impacts from Tropical Storm Gordon. The exception to this statement may be immediately near the Emerald Coast from Destin to Pensacola, where tropical storm force winds and heavy rain is still a possibility.

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Gordon and provide updates in this story, via our Facebook and Twitter accounts, or in the mobile app Florida Storms.