Tropical Storm Dolly formed in the central Atlantic on Thursday, but the National Hurricane Center expects the system to weaken before impacting any landmasses.

The fourth named storm of the season formed from a tropical wave that was originally designated Invest 96L while southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Dolly last had maximum sustained winds of around 40 mph and was reported to be about 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

While the storm's formation comes just days before the Atlantic basin hurricane season approaches its climatological peak, Dolly is not expected to be a long-lived tropical cyclone.

The NHC says environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate significantly over the weekend, leading to Dolly falling apart before it reaches the islands.

Hostile conditions are common during what is known as an El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

The forecast calls for Dolly to lose its tropical characteristics and dissipate by Monday.

Despite its eventual weakening, forecasters will keep an eye on the system because of its potential to produce heavy rain and gusty winds across the Leeward Islands.

Any rainfall will be welcome news across the Caribbean, where some islands have been dealing with historic drought conditions.

Once past the islands, the system will be monitored for regeneration in the southwest Atlantic, but forecast models consider the odds to be low.

Less than 1% of computer forecast models show Dolly as a trackable entity near Florida - a scenario will continue to be monitored, given the timing of the season's peak and how quickly tropical cyclones can develop in September.

The name "Dolly" has been used to identify storms since the 1950s and was added to the rotation of Atlantic storm names in 1996.

The next name on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season list is Edouard.

The most organized Cabo Verde disturbance of the Atlantic hurricane season is slowly making its way westward across the open Atlantic Ocean, but the verdict is still out on what the future holds for the system.

The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

If the disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it would earn the name of Dolly. The name has been used to identify storms since the 1950s and was added to the rotation of Atlantic storm names in 1996.

Recent satellite imagery has shown dry air inhibiting some of its organization, with much of the thunderstorm activity concentrated across the southern half of the disturbance.

Invest 96L is currently moving westward, a trajectory that would keep the system over open water for at least the next week.

Computer forecast models show a wide range of possible outcomes, from the disturbance falling apart over the Atlantic to becoming a powerful hurricane that eventually turns northward over the open ocean.

Strong system gets pulled northward

The Global Forecast System (GFS) was one of the first major forecast models to depict significant development from the tropical wave and has consistently shown some of the most aggressive strengthening.

With the GFS solution, the system would become a hurricane as it moves westward across the Atlantic before eventually turning more toward the northwest and north.

Because of its forecast position and strength, a storm following this scenario would miss the Caribbean and venture into the open Atlantic, east of Bermuda.

Larger, vertically stacked cyclones tend to move more poleward, as the steering flows helps systems to gain more latitude and be picked up by passing troughs.

If this scenario unfolds, the United States would avoid direct impacts from the storm, with the system remaining more than 1,000 miles offshore.

Depending on its exact track and intensity, some coastal areas would still experience elevated surf and dangerous rip currents around the Labor Day weekend.

But not all computer models are in agreement with the general GFS solution.

Weak tropical cyclone ventures toward the Lesser Antilles

A more concerning scenario would involve Invest 96L struggling to intensify into a powerful hurricane as it moves westward across the Atlantic.

A weaker tropical cyclone, such as a tropical depression or disorganized tropical storm, would be influenced by lower-level steering currents. That would allow the system to trek farther west, potentially bringing it close to the Lesser Antilles.

Models such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have at times shown a solution that keeps the system farther south and closer to the Caribbean.

A track over or near the northeastern Caribbean islands would also require interests along the U.S. East Coast to monitor the system closely.

Conditions generally become more conducive to tropical cyclone organization near the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast, and anything that impacts the Caribbean would potentially be in line to move into this more favorable environmental area.

It is still too early in the forecast period to determine whether Invest 96L will follow this scenario.

Weak tropical wave brings beneficial rain to Caribbean

The third possibility is that Invest 96L fails to become a significant tropical cyclone and instead remains weak as it continues westward.

A weaker disturbance would be more likely to follow the low-level trade wind flow toward the Caribbean.

This would produce beneficial rainfall for parts of the region, where some areas have been dealing with historic drought conditions.

Strong upper-level winds, courtesy of the strengthening El Niño, would make the environment nearly impossible for the system to organize and strengthen while in the Caribbean Sea.

This has been a recurring issue for several tropical waves during the 2026 hurricane season.

Tropical waves that have failed to develop in the Atlantic basin have actually crossed Central America and developed on the Pacific side, where there have already been 12 named storms and three hurricanes.

Beyond Invest 96L, there are no other areas currently being tracked for tropical development across the Atlantic.

The hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, meaning there is still plenty of time for additional tropical development.

A partial lunar eclipse is set to put on a show across Florida's night sky late Thursday into Friday morning, with nearly the entire Moon disappearing under Earth's shadow.

NASA says up to 96% of the Moon will appear to be covered by the shadow, with the peak event occurring at 12:12 a.m. on Friday.

During the early stages of the spectacle, Earth's shadow will begin moving over the Moon's southwestern edge around 9:23 p.m. on Thursday, but the eclipse will really take hold starting around 10:23 p.m.

As the eclipse progresses, the Moon will also take on a reddish hue, courtesy of sunlight being refracted through Earth's atmosphere and toward the lunar surface.

The biggest hindrance for skywatchers likely will be any type of cloud cover, and forecast models suggest there might be some around.

Much of the state's shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to occur during the daytime hours on Thursday, but some clouds will linger into the evening, causing partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions.

The cloud cover could temporarily obscure portions of the eclipse, but there should still be plenty of opportunities to see the Moon during the nearly six-hour event.

The lunar eclipse comes about two weeks after a solar eclipse was visible from parts of North America, Europe and northern Asia.

Unlike a solar eclipse, the upcoming event can be viewed safely without special eye protection.

The Moon does not produce its own light and reflects sunlight back toward Earth, but the light is not intense enough to cause eye damage.

Binoculars or a telescope will still provide the best viewing of the lunar eclipse but are not considered to be necessary.

Astronomers say the close timing of the recent eclipses is not a coincidence, as solar and lunar eclipses often occur in pairs or groups of three.

A solar eclipse occurs during a new moon cycle, when the Moon passes between the Earth and the Sun, while a lunar eclipse only occurs during the full moon phase, when Earth moves between the Sun and the Moon.

Because the orbits of the Moon and the Earth are slanted, eclipses are not monthly events but are not rare either, with around half a dozen reported every year.

For anyone who misses Friday morning's event, another lunar eclipse will be visible from Florida in February 2027.

However, next year's eclipse will look a bit different because it is known as a "penumbral lunar eclipse."

During a penumbral lunar eclipse, the Moon passes only through Earth's faint outer shadow, resulting in less dimming of Earth's only natural satellite.

We often measure Florida's summer by the afternoon high, but increasingly, another number deserves our attention: the nighttime low. Across Florida, summer nights are warming nearly twice as fast as summer days. Florida Storms meteorologist Leslie Hudson dives into the science of why the heat sticks around after the sun goes down.
In this video, you’ll learn:

• The 5 Florida cities seeing the biggest jump in "hot nights."
• How humidity and clouds act as a "blanket," trapping heat at the surface.
• The "Urban Heat Island" effect and why cities stay warmer than rural areas.
• Why a lack of overnight "recovery time" is a serious risk to your health.

Understanding the overnight heat is just as important as tracking the afternoon high. And consecutive hot nights can compound the problem. When temperatures remain elevated overnight, people without adequate air conditioning may begin the next day without fully recovering from the heat exposure of the day before. That makes nighttime temperatures an important part of assessing heat risk—not just the afternoon high.

Florida's summer heat can be dangerous at any age. But as we get older, our body's built-in defenses against that heat begin to change. We may sweat less, feel thirsty later—and some commonly prescribed medications can make it even harder to stay cool. Florida Storms meteorologist Leslie Hudson explains why the warning signs of heat stress may be easier to miss as we age.

Heat waves can trigger deaths from heart attacks, Alzheimer’s disease complications, pneumonia and COPD, according to the experts. Staying cool doesn't have to mean staying home.

If air conditioning isn't available, experts recommend spending time in an air-conditioned public space such as a library, mall or community center. And during periods of extreme heat, family and neighbors should make a point to check regularly on older adults who live alone.

Storms developed Sunday afternoon as the sea breeze interacted with the heat. The storms came packed with thunder and lightning, as all thunderstorms do.

Shortly after 2 p.m., a cell moved mainly east and was capable of producing gusty winds and hail. This same cell was strong enough to prompt the local National Weather Service office in Miami to issue a Special Weather Statement. These kinds of statements are issued when a thunderstorm is strong but does not quite meet the threshold for a severe thunderstorm warning. Lightning is never a criterion for issuing a severe thunderstorm warning.

The storm moved through Margate, a neighborhood in Broward County in South Florida, when 31-year-old Kenya Glashow and her 2-year-old were struck by lightning on the sidewalk in front of their home. Both were taken to nearby hospitals and pronounced dead. A neighbor discovered the victims after rushing his family indoors from their car and calling 911 for help.

Florida leads the nation in lightning fatalities, with 51 deaths between 2016 and 2025. Although the number of lightning deaths nationwide has been declining, one death is too many. These deaths are preventable.

To stay safe from lightning, you should always stay updated on the weather forecast, especially if you are outdoors. If you plan to participate in outdoor activities, take the necessary precautions before a storm arrives. Like tornadoes, meteorologists know when lightning is most likely to occur, but not precisely when or where it will strike. It is essential to remember that even though a storm may not seem threatening, lightning can strike as far as 10 miles away from a storm and still cause damage or be fatal.

If outdoors:

• Stop outdoor activities.
• Seek shelter if you see the sky darkening or as soon as you hear thunder.
• Avoid open fields, picnic pavilions, baseball dugouts, beach shacks, and isolated trees.
• Stay away from tall structures, such as trees and posts.
• Convertibles and golf carts do not protect you from lightning.
• If you are in a group, spread out. This reduces the risk of the current traveling through the group.
• Avoid contact with water, wet items, and metal objects. They do not attract lightning, but they are good conductors of electricity.

If indoors:

• Wireless phones are generally safe to use, but avoid using corded phones.
• Do not use electrical appliances, including TVs and computers.
• Avoid plumbing.
• Stay away from doors and windows.
• Protect your pets by bringing them inside.
• Do not try to unplug equipment during a thunderstorm.

A strengthening El Niño event centered over the central and eastern Pacific is forecast to become the strongest cycle in modern history, leading to significant weather impacts over the winter months.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives the event around a 70% chance of reaching historic strength during the October-December period.

If realized, it would leave forecasters with an unusual challenge heading into the 2026-27 winter, as there has never been an El Niño event on the scale of the pending episode.

Without a previous similar-strength event, there are no historical analogs for forecasters to look back on for clues about what the upcoming winter could produce.

El Niño events considered to be among the strongest of the modern era occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 and could potentially serve as a comparison.

During these extreme events, the Sunshine State generally experienced temperatures that were around or above normal, with an increased risk of severe weather during the second half of the winter seasons.

This is due to an increase of energy in the subtropical jet and a shift in the overall storm track farther south.

The 1997-98 season remains particularly memorable event, as it produced the deadliest tornado outbreak in the state’s history.

On the night of Feb. 22, 1998, a powerful storm system moved across the Gulf and into Florida, producing at least a dozen tornadoes and resulting in 42 deaths and more than 260 injuries.

The outbreak was especially deadly because it occurred overnight, when many people were asleep and were unaware of the severe weather.

But again, without knowing the potential effects of the most significant El Niño in history, it is difficult to determine whether something similar could happen again.

National Weather Service meteorologists caution that predicting tornado outbreaks based solely on the status of an El Niño is problematic, as many factors play a role.

There is another potential outcome worth considering when looking ahead to Florida's winter.

If the seasonal forecasts for above-average rainfall fail to materialize, Florida could enter the new year with a very different problem.

A dry winter would allow the current drought to expand and worsen, leading to a problematic wildfire season during 2027.

For now, climate models continue to favor a wetter pattern over meteorological winter, but it will remain a situation that needs to be monitored.

As we continue to cruise through summer, many cities across Florida have also seen some of the hottest weeks on record so far. We also continue to have a significant rainfall deficit across most of Florida, not only for the summer months—which are Florida’s rainy season—but also since the beginning of the year.

Let’s talk about the heat first. Temperatures across Florida have been scorching. Looking at the big picture across the state, temperatures have remained between 1°F and 2°F above average along the I-10 corridor so far this summer, except in parts of Jacksonville, where temperatures have been around 5°F above average from the start of summer through August 21. Gainesville’s summer temperature to date has been 2°F above average, and so far, the city is experiencing its sixth-warmest summer on record. Around the I-4 corridor, temperatures are between 1°F and 3°F above average so far this summer. While Orlando is experiencing its second-warmest summer to date based on a 131-year record at this location, the Tampa Bay area ranks 17th warmest based on a 137-year record. Between Tampa and Orlando, Lakeland has the highest departure from average, at 3°F above the average value of 94.6°F so far this summer. The West Palm Beach area is also experiencing a very hot summer, with temperatures around 3°F above average and an average temperature of around 92°F.

Farther south, across Fort Lauderdale and Miami, the heat is also setting records so far this summer. Across Fort Lauderdale, the average summer temperature to date is 91.4°F, about 2°F above average. It is the fourth-warmest summer so far for the Fort Lauderdale area. Across the Miami area, the second-warmest summer on record has been about 2°F above average so far. Southwest Florida also remains around 2°F above average, with an average temperature of about 93°F, and is currently experiencing its ninth-warmest summer to date. And if you’ve been outside this summer, you have definitely felt the heat—not only the temperature, but also the persistent humidity. Humidity has prompted several heat advisories so far this year. 2024 was a memorable year across South Florida. Miami-Dade and Broward counties experienced the most consecutive days under heat advisories, with 54 and 56 heat advisories issued that year. So far this year, 37 heat advisories have been issued for the Miami-Dade and Broward metro areas; 24 have been issued across Southwest Florida; and 15 have been issued in the Fort Myers area.

The main difference between the numerous heat advisories in South Florida in 2024 and those in 2026 is that this year, local National Weather Service offices across Central and North Florida have issued more heat advisories. For Orange, Seminole and Volusia counties, as well as the northern half of Brevard County, 20 heat advisories have been issued so far in 2026. This compares with around 10 issued in 2024. Across North Florida, from Jacksonville to the Gainesville area, between 21 and 22 heat advisories have been issued so far this season. Moving westward along the corridor, Tallahassee has been under a heat advisory 20 times so far this year, while in 2024, 23 heat advisories were in effect. Keep in mind that we still have some hot weeks ahead, and more heat advisories and extreme heat warnings could be issued.

Speaking of extreme heat warnings, Central and Southwest Florida, including parts of the Treasure Coast, have not had any extreme heat warnings issued so far this year. The highest number of extreme heat warnings has been mainly confined to Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle. Leon County has been placed under an extreme heat warning four times so far in 2026, and much of North Florida has been placed under this warning twice. Meanwhile, areas just north of Lake County in Central Florida have received one extreme heat warning, as have Broward and Miami-Dade counties in South Florida. An extreme heat warning is a high-level alert indicating that extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat conditions will occur within the next 12 to 24 hours. For many areas, heat indices are expected to reach at least 105°F for several hours during the day, while overnight temperatures are unlikely to offer much relief. Although we do not yet have official numbers on heat-related deaths this summer—the state health department and medical examiners typically take several months to finalize and release comprehensive annual mortality data—there have been several reports of children being left in hot cars across Florida this summer.

Not much relief from the heat due to the lack of rain.

The drought remains a major topic across Florida. The latest Drought Monitor shows several categories worsening, especially the extreme drought category, which grew by slightly more than a quarter of a percentage point. This might seem insignificant, but the drought hasn't really left us since summer arrived. Remember, summer is Florida’s rainy season. Still having extreme drought show up on the Florida map could start sounding alarm bells across the state. But not so fast. We still have more than a week left in August, the entire month of September, and almost the entire month of October to receive beneficial rainfall across the state.

Remember, what could alleviate the drought is several days of consistent light to moderate rain rather than a high-impact rain event of short duration. At this point, with the ground dry across much of Florida, a heavy rain event could trigger flash flooding more quickly. Although some parts of Florida have received a little more moisture this past week, and atmospheric conditions have become more favorable for thunderstorm formation—especially across South Florida, and with Saharan dust having moved away—we are still experiencing a significant rainfall deficit across the state. Across North Florida, the rainfall deficit continues to range between 1.5 and 3.25 inches. The only area with a rainfall surplus between June 1 and August 20 is the Pensacola area, where rainfall is running around 1.5 inches above average. Gainesville is also at a slight rainfall surplus of 0.69 inches.

Central Florida remains very dry. Although the Daytona Beach area is around half an inch below average this summer, areas such as Orlando and Ocala are between 6 and 9 inches below average for the season so far. Currently, Orlando is experiencing its fifth-driest summer season on record. The Tampa Bay area has improved significantly in recent weeks. At the beginning of the summer, the area was running more than 12 inches below average, but right now, the rainfall deficit stands at around 4 inches. The Vero Beach/Fort Pierce area is the only area across the southern half of Florida, excluding the Keys, experiencing a rainfall surplus. Across Southwest Florida, between Fort Myers and Naples, rainfall deficits range between 7 and 8 inches. Naples is having its fourth-driest summer so far.

Southeast Florida is currently experiencing the largest rainfall deficit in the state. Fort Lauderdale is close to 14 inches below average, while Miami is slightly more than 14 inches below average this season. Both areas are experiencing their driest summer seasons on record. For reference, Fort Lauderdale has recorded 5.94 inches of rain so far this season, while average rainfall by this point is close to 20 inches. The Florida Keys show stark differences. Although there is no official data for the Upper Keys, the Middle Keys, including Marathon, are experiencing their fifth-driest summer season on record, with rainfall almost 9 inches below average so far. Meanwhile, Key West has received 11.26 inches of rain, putting it about a quarter of an inch above average so far this season. As mentioned, let’s keep hoping for a prolonged period of moderate showers to help ease the drought and support vegetation and crops across the state. More cloud cover and passing showers could also help reduce temperatures and bring Florida’s persistent heat closer to the seasonal averages we’re used to.

Recent sporadic rainfall around the state has created breeding grounds for one of the deadliest insects on Earth, and as a result, counties are reporting an uptick in activity.

Mosquito-borne health alerts are in effect for Alachua, Leon, Palm Beach, Pasco, Hillsborough and Miami-Dade counties, according to the Florida Department of Health.

Alerts and advisories are largely based on surveillance data from sentinel chickens, which are used to help detect mosquito-borne viruses in an area.

Surveillance programs can provide early warnings that a mosquito-borne virus is present, allowing local officials to take measures to reduce the risk of transmission.

Two of the more prevalent mosquito-borne diseases being reported right now are the West Nile virus and dengue, which has infected several people along Florida's west coast.

According to health officials, seven cases of locally acquired dengue have been reported so far in 2026, with five cases in Hillsborough County and one each in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties.

Most people who become infected with dengue have either mild symptoms or no effects at all, but some infections can be more severe and require hospitalization.

According to health experts at the University of Florida, symptoms can include fever, headache, muscle pain, and rashes, which generally last upwards of around a week.

Dengue does not spread directly from one person to another but can spread when a mosquito bites a person who has the virus in their blood and then transmits the illness when it bites another person.

While much of the Sunshine State remains unusually dry, mosquitoes can still can remain a health concern into the winter months.

“In drought conditions, birds and mosquitoes can be concentrated around the same water sources,” Dr. Eva Buckner, an assistant professor at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Medical Entomology Laboratory, previously stated. “That close proximity can actually increase virus transmission, which can then spill over to humans.”

Health officials suggest using insect repellent, wearing long clothing and keeping doors and windows closed to reduce exposure to mosquitoes.

Homeowners should also work to eliminate standing water around their property, especially after a rainstorm.

Items such as flowerpot or even a child's toy, can collect enough water to produce a mosquito breeding site.

In addition to the West Nile virus and dengue, health officials also monitor for Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE), St. Louis encephalitis (SLE), chikungunya fever, Oropouche fever and Zika, but as of the latest statewide report, minimal activity has been detected.

Here’s a corrected version with grammar, spelling, and obvious transcription errors fixed while keeping your original meaning and weather-reporting style:

Record heat across the entire peninsula continues. Specifically, Miami International Airport reached a historic temperature: 100°F.

Although South Floridians might think that we have hit 100°F many times in the past, only a few have actually experienced an air temperature of 100°F—specifically at MIA, where the official station is located. The temperature has hit 100°F only one other time, and that was in 1942. So, since records began in 1895, the temperature has risen to 100°F only twice.

Why so hot?

All the ingredients are there for record heat across South Florida and the rest of the peninsula. A high-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is bringing an offshore wind along Florida's central and east coasts. Although temperatures have remained hot along the west coast of the peninsula, they’re not as hot as across the eastern half. This is because the wind warms even more as it travels over the hot land.

Saharan dust has also been present across South Florida, which has really put a lid on thunderstorm activity across the region. In addition, the west winds have prevented the sea breeze from forming and moving inland as it usually does during the summer months.

Remember, thunderstorm activity and isolated showers bring temperatures down during summer afternoons. But without the sea breeze helping to develop thunderstorms, the day remains full of sunshine, and temperatures remain hot.

Will there be any relief?

Wednesday is forecast to be another hot day across South Florida. Records could be broken again, but temperatures are not expected to reach triple digits at official stations. However, unofficial stations across South Florida could come very close. Fort Lauderdale's high on Wednesday is forecast to reach 95°F, and it could break a record at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport.

In Miami, the temperature could once again hit a record. This time, if it reaches 96°F, it would break the old record. A few thunderstorms could develop late Wednesday afternoon, but storm chances will be higher earlier Thursday and Friday. This will keep temperatures closer to 94°F.

Nights will also remain very warm. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, temperatures will barely dip below 82°F and remain in the low 80s through the rest of the week.

Saharan dust will also slowly diminish across the region, and skies will remain partly to mostly clear during the evenings.

For now, the weekend looks to return to a more typical summertime pattern, with winds shifting more out of the south. This should allow sea breezes to develop Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

According to Climate Central's tool, developed from Climate Central's peer-reviewed research, the Climate Shift Index is 5, meaning climate change made the daily average temperature on August 18 at least 5 times more likely.

The dog days of summer are here. And the Midwest has a strange explanation for some of its brutal summer humidity: corn! It's called "corn sweat"—and the science behind it is very real.

But here's a plot twist: Florida is one of the nation's top sweet corn producers, yet those crops aren't what make our summers so sticky. So what does? Florida Storms meteorologist Leslie Hudson explains why the Sunshine State is growing thunderstorms...not corn sweat.

And Florida's unusual corn-growing season has an upside. While much of the country is too cold to grow it, Florida becomes the East Coast's main supplier of fresh-market sweet corn from November through May.

As we move toward the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, particularly in August and September, the area meteorologists monitor expands significantly. We’re no longer watching only the Caribbean and areas near the U.S.; this is also when stronger tropical waves emerge from Africa and travel westward across the Atlantic. We have certainly seen several waves coming out of Africa, but so far none have made it to the Caribbean or developed into a tropical system.

On average, a tropical wave moves west at about 15 mph. If we could remove the atmospheric and oceanic factors that cause a system to strengthen, weaken, or change direction, a wave moving at that speed would generally take about 12 to 14 days to reach the U.S. coast, according to Dr. Robert Hart at Florida State University.

Once a system reaches the Lesser Antilles, that timeline is roughly cut in half, with about five to six days to reach the continental United States. Tropical systems that form closer to land offer even less time. A system developing in the Gulf of Mexico could reach the U.S. or eastern Mexico in just one to three days. Therefore, tracking a tropical wave from Africa can feel like a marathon.

What are the chances of a far-off brewing system striking the U.S?

With a system moving closer, the chances of striking the U.S. also increase. But probabilities also change depending on a system’s location and intensity. A hurricane that has already formed over the tropical Atlantic, such as near the Cabo Verde Islands, has less than a 10% chance of eventually striking the continental United States. Once a tropical cyclone reaches hurricane strength, with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph, it is more likely to recurve and remain over the Atlantic. Once a system enters the Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, however, its chances of striking the Lower 48 increase to roughly 30% to 40%. Depending on its location and track, the risk of impacts elsewhere in the Caribbean can also remain moderate to high.