If you haven’t noticed yet, you’re about to notice a change in the weather pattern across much of Florida. Florida’s rainy season typically lasts about six months, generally from May through October. In some locations — especially across North Florida and the Panhandle — the wet season often begins in late April or early May and winds down by late September.

This past dry season, and even much of the latter part of the 2025 rainy season, has been unusually dry. Many cities finished 2025 with rainfall deficits approaching a foot below average, and those deficits deepened further through the climatologically driest months of the year.

What drives Florida’s rain activity?

The sea breeze is the primary driver of thunderstorms during Florida’s rainy season, excluding tropical cyclones. During the warmer months, intense daytime heating causes air to rise over the peninsula while cooler air from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico moves inland. As these sea breezes collide, they force warm, moisture-rich air upward, often triggering the daily cycle of afternoon and evening thunderstorms that Florida is known for. As Florida transitions deeper into the wet season, increasing heat, humidity, and sea-breeze activity will gradually bring more frequent thunderstorms back to the state — a notable shift from the prolonged dry pattern many areas have experienced over the past several months.

Outside of the wet season, rainfall becomes much more dependent on the passage of cold fronts. With less daytime heating and reduced atmospheric instability, many fronts crossing the state lack the moisture and energy needed to produce widespread thunderstorms.

Stalled fronts can bring lots of rain, too.

At times, especially at the start of the season, when there are still a few fronts that make it closer to Florida, they can stall close enough to or over the state. These stationary fronts not only make the atmosphere more unstable, but if humidity remains high, they can also become the catalyst for heavy rainfall and deluges. Additionally, at times, a significant amount of deep tropical moisture is present, and a stationary front can channel it directly over the Sunshine State, often leading to significant flooding.

The wet season also coincides with the tropical season. There have been times when a stationary front could leave enough energy behind to develop tropical systems near Florida, which could bring rain on top of rain — first due to the stationary front, then, depending on the track, more rain over the same regions. Stationary fronts should be watched closely.

What could an El Niño in the summer bring?

Forecasts call for a strong El Niño to show in the summer. El Niño is a climatological pattern in the tropical Pacific that affects weather and seasonal patterns worldwide. During the summer months, El Niño can have several noticeable impacts on Florida’s weather patterns. One of the most common effects is an increase in rain chances later in the season, which can help reduce or prevent drought conditions in some areas. Increased tropical moisture and a more active subtropical jet stream can contribute to wetter conditions at times.

El Niño tends to bring less tropical storm activity by increasing upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. As a result, hurricane and tropical storm activity is often lower, leading to a generally quieter hurricane season for Florida and other coastal regions. Temperatures typically remain warm, but increased cloud cover and more frequent rainfall can help limit prolonged periods of extreme heat. However, El Niño impacts are not always consistent from year to year. In some cases, especially if the pattern develops early or remains weak, parts of late summer can still turn out drier than normal. The overall effects often depend on the strength, timing, and evolution of the El Niño pattern.

Most of Florida received rain this week. Rainfall impacted the western Peninsula for several days throughout last weekend due to a stationary front that stayed over the Panhandle for much of the weekend. As the week progressed, especially in the first half, the rainfall continued to move south, also affecting much of Central and South Florida. Luckily, the rainfall that impacted South Florida completely extinguished the wildfire that burned over 11,000 acres in western Broward.

Center

We knew this wouldn’t be enough rain to make a huge dent in the drought, but it did bring small improvements in the western portion of the Peninsula, which is clearly noticeable in the latest drought report released on Thursday, May 14.

Keep in mind that the drought report is released on Thursdays, but the cutoff date for the rainfall data is two days prior, on Tuesday. This is the main reason we are seeing improvement in the drought across the western portion of the Peninsula, mainly over Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, which are now under a severe drought, with the southern half of Santa Rosa County still experiencing extreme drought. Jackson and Washington counties, just west of Tallahassee, also improved their drought category from exceptional to extreme.

The reason we didn’t see much improvement across Central and South Florida is that the rain that fell, especially in South Florida, with some isolated areas accumulating over 3 inches, was because of the timing of the data cutoff. Remember, much of the rain fell on Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Therefore, this rainfall is not included in the latest drought report released on May 15, as the data cutoff was on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning.

If we look really closely at Palm Beach and Broward counties, the latest drought report shows that the moderate and severe drought actually crept a bit farther east, covering many areas across eastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach County. But as I mentioned, this has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the data does not include the rain that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Is there any hope in the forecast for rain?

The rainy season has officially started across much of Florida. Mother Nature seems to be getting the initial memo about this start. We will have a high-pressure system located just over the eastern Atlantic. This high-pressure system will bring a south-southeasterly flow across much of the Peninsula, keeping the moisture stream constant across Florida. By keeping this moisture stream flowing over the state and providing ample heat for the atmosphere to become unstable, we will have typical sea breezes develop. With moisture from the Atlantic, we can expect afternoon thunderstorms to develop mainly across the Peninsula, extending from South Florida through the southern part of North Florida.

We will remain under this southeasterly flow for much of next week, allowing a semi-constant-to-constant pattern to stay put, with humidity, plenty of daytime heat, and typical afternoon thunderstorms.

By next weekend, we could be looking at a front that will come close to the Southeast. If this materializes, we could be dealing with a stationary front that will bring rain, especially across the Panhandle, over the weekend. If this front moves a little farther south, it could bring more unstable weather across the Peninsula, but we will continue to monitor its evolution throughout the week and bring you updates.

Florida will enter another dry spell as we move closer to the weekend. A cold front continues to move very slowly to the south. This cold front is associated with a low-pressure system that will sit just off the East Coast of Florida. The most unsettled conditions will be mainly across South Florida, with scattered showers still in the forecast for Thursday, but not as numerous as on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the rest of the peninsula, we will have mostly stable weather, but another cold front will push in from the north just in time to end the week. This next cold front comes a little bit stronger, and we expect it to brush off the showers and thunderstorms and change the wind pattern across the state.

Until this next front does, we can expect the flow to continue mainly from the south-southwest along the peninsula. So any showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be mainly focused across the interior and East Coast of Florida. The western half of the peninsula could see showers, but if they do, it will most likely be in the first half of the day.

Overall, more sunshine is expected across Florida on Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to rise to near-average or slightly above-average for this time of year. Across the East Coast of Florida, temperatures will remain slightly warmer because the wind has to travel over land, which makes the air warmer and the temperatures warmer.

After the next full cold front pushes through Florida on Friday, the winds will return mainly from the east-southeast for the weekend. There will be slightly drier air, so any showers and thunderstorms that develop will most likely be across the interior during the afternoon and will be very isolated.

The winds coming mainly from the southeast are due to a high-pressure system located just to the east of Florida, which will provide this southeastern flow throughout the weekend. Keep in mind that the southeasterly flow will likely increase the risk of recurrence along the East Coast of Florida throughout the weekend and into early next week.

Highs across the state will be around the mid to upper 80s throughout the weekend, especially across the interior and western portions of Florida. Mornings will remain muggy and warm with temperatures near average for this time of year.

Keep in mind that a new drought report will be released on Thursday morning. There is a small caveat with this report: it will not include the rain that fell across much of Central and South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Drought reports are released two days later, on the following Thursday, and include data from Tuesday morning through Tuesday morning of the following week. Therefore, the report to be released on May 14 in the morning includes data cut off on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning. We will bring you an update as soon as a drought monitor report is released.

The fire in western Broward continues to burn on Monday afternoon. Over 7,000 acres have burned, with about 45% containment as of mid-Monday afternoon. The winds have remained relatively light on Monday, mainly from the south-southeast. Expect the wind to remain light and variable overnight. Humidity levels, specifically dewpoint temperatures, are slightly less humid across the Everglades, as there’s plenty of dry vegetation in place. This area of South Florida remains under a severe-to-extreme drought.

Air quality could still be an issue across some cities in western Broward, such as Pembroke Pines, Weston, and Miramar, on Monday through the overnight hours on Tuesday. Late Monday afternoon, a few scattered showers are developing across South Florida. Better chances of numerous showers are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, specifically in the afternoon to early evening.

A cold front will push through Florida on Tuesday and likely reach South Florida Tuesday night. This front will provide the atmospheric lift needed to sustain thunderstorms with greater coverage. There is a chance on Tuesday for some thunderstorms, specifically those along the I-95 corridor from Daytona Beach to Miami, to become severe, with the main risk being damaging winds of at least 58 mph. Thunderstorms also have lightning. Lightning can spark fires, so please stay alert for any fires that may ignite, especially in areas with extremely dry vegetation.

On Wednesday, the front will slow and park just over Lake Okeechobee. This is why we’re expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon, as the day’s heating makes the atmosphere more unstable. The humidity will be present, making the temperatures feel slightly warmer than the thermometer indicates.

Fortunately, strong winds will not be an issue for fire propagation. And with rain showers forecast, this will help battle the fires. Keep in mind, rain totals will range from 2 to 4 inches across parts of South Florida, but some areas may accumulate a little less. We welcome any amount of rain, but it will not help eradicate the drought. The rain showers will bring relief to the wildfires happening across South Florida.

A wildfire broke out Sunday afternoon in the Everglades over western Broward County. It quickly grew from 80 acres to more than 2,800 acres within a few hours as firefighters battled the flames. By evening, the Fire Forest Service reported the fire had grown to over 4,800 acres and was about 20 percent contained.

Helicopters were seen flying overhead, dropping water to contain the fire, but with limited success. Dew points over this part of the Everglades were between 40 and 50°F, much drier than areas closer to the coast, where dew points were in the low to mid-70s.

Western Broward remains under extreme drought conditions, with plenty of dry vegetation across the Everglades and much of interior South Florida. Air quality will continue to decrease, especially across the western suburbs of Broward County. By late Sunday afternoon, falling ash was reported near West Pines Boulevard and through Weston. Overnight, smoke may be detected across nearby communities, creating unhealthy conditions for people with respiratory issues. Ash may also continue to fall overnight, and smoke could reduce visibility into early Monday morning.

Winds overnight will decrease, but become variable. By Monday afternoon, winds are expected to shift out of the south-southeast while staying relatively calm, which could help firefighters contain the fire. However, there is still plenty of dry vegetation available to fuel the flames, and lower humidity levels will continue across the inland region. Temperatures will be scorching again on Monday, with heat indices potentially reaching the triple digits in parts of South Florida.

Sea-breeze boundaries may help trigger a few afternoon thunderstorms on Monday. These storms are not expected to be widespread and are likely to develop over the southern portion of Lake Okeechobee, but depending on where they develop, they could help portions of the fire area. Rain chances increase Tuesday as the next front moves through South Florida, potentially bringing heavier rainfall. Models show interior areas of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, while coastal areas may see lower totals of around 1.5 to 2 inches through Wednesday.

This rainfall would fall over some of the areas that need it most and could bring relief to the drought. Most importantly, if the fire is not contained by Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday's rainfall could help extinguish it. We will continue to monitor the situation and bring you another update on Monday afternoon.

Florida’s annual lovebug season has returned, but the worst drought in more than two decades has led to smaller swarms of these benign insects being spotted.

Plecia nearctica typically emerge in large numbers during the late spring and fall but this year, sightings have been reduced - an outcome largely attributed to state's the dry conditions.

According to experts with the University of Florida, lovebugs spend most of their lives underground in the larval stage before emerging as adults.

Their development is considered to be highly dependent on environmental conditions, such as temperature, humidity and soil moisture.

Reduced moisture causes leaves and other organic material to decompose slower than is typical, leading to reduced populations of bugs.

Drought conditions are the most extreme along the I-10 and I-75 corridor, with some areas resembling desert-like conditions.

Farther south, drought conditions have been less severe, allowing for somewhat more typical insect activity in southern portions of the state.

While rounds of rainfall over recent days have increased moisture levels, the precipitation has not been widespread enough to reverse precipitation deficits.

During previous seasons, lovebug activity has generally increased after rainfall events, as evidence by their splattering on vehicles.

Lovebugs are considered primarily to be a nuisance pest because they do not bite, sting or spread diseases, with their biggest impact on motorists.

If left uncleaned, the insects’ remains can damage vehicle paint and leave windshields dirty, reducing visibility for motorists.

Entomologists say lovebugs are most active during the warmest part of the day, typically from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., when temperatures climb above 84 degrees.

Activity also tends to increase during time periods of calmer winds and elevated humidity levels.

Contrary to long-running beliefs, the University of Florida did not create the bugs through any type of failed scientific experiment.

Researchers say the insects naturally migrated from Central America to Gulf Coast region during the early 20th century before eventually making it to the Sunshine State during the 1940s.

Historically, populations of lovebugs have fluctuated depending on climate patterns and have returned to a more active state once more typical weather conditions take hold.

Florida’s transition into the rainy season during the coming weeks has the chance to improve soil moisture levels and create more favorable conditions for lovebugs later this year.

They’re different components that will allow temperatures to soar across much of Florida. First, a high-pressure system is located over the Caribbean. This high will linger around the same region for much of this week and into next week. This upper-level high-pressure system will bring sinking air across much of the area, especially impacting South and Central Florida. Warm air sinks, and as it sinks, it warms even further, allowing temperatures to rise. Also, a high-pressure system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere suppresses rain chances. We’re not expecting much rain across the southern half of Florida through the end of this week.

The next chance for a shower or two will likely arrive at the end of the weekend and continue into early next week. Around the weekend, the high-pressure system will weaken enough to allow the next front to push through. However, the front before that will not reach Florida. Instead, it will stall over the Southeast, increasing rain chances between Thursday night and Saturday morning across the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama.

These will be beneficial rains across the Panhandle, as they will likely be steady. However, keep in mind that isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across the western portion of the state. There is a chance that parts of the Panhandle could receive anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain during the next three days. More rain is expected on Sunday for Mother’s Day and into early next week as another front pushes through. This is the same front that will eventually move across the Florida Peninsula.

Soaring Temperatures

Highs across Florida this week will be very hot. An area of high pressure is bringing winds in from the west. Winds from the south and southwest will bring lots of warmth and humidity across the Sunshine State as well.

As a result, temperatures will feel even hotter, especially across the interior of Florida and along the East Coast, from the Space Coast to Southeast Florida. Heat index values will climb significantly across the state.

For Thursday, the record high in Orlando is 98°. We could come close to that record, but temperatures will likely stay just below it on Thursday. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s record high, established in 1980, is 91°, and the forecast high is 94°. Daytona Beach could also set a new record if temperatures exceed 93°.

Dangerous heat will also impact South Florida. Feels-like temperatures could approach the triple digits not only on Friday, but throughout the weekend as well. Friday’s high temperature could come close to the record of 93 ° set in 1998. Miami’s forecast high will be even closer and could possibly establish a new record if temperatures reach 94°. That record was set in 2022.

Keep in mind that temperatures across western Florida will be slightly lower due to onshore wind flow. Nonetheless, these are dangerously hot temperatures across much of the state.

Make sure to avoid outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day. Stay hydrated, especially if you plan to spend time outside, and make sure children are also staying hydrated and safe from the heat.

Rain chances will slowly increase across Central Florida on Sunday, Mother’s Day. There is a slight chance of showers across Southeast Florida on Sunday, but they will remain very isolated. Monday will bring better shower coverage across Southeast Florida as the next front moves in, and scattered shower activity is expected to continue across parts of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will continue to update you about the next chance for rain later this week.

Tuesday will be a transitional day across Florida. While it will be the last cooler morning across North Florida and the Panhandle, temperatures across Central and South Florida will begin to ramp up.

Highs on Tuesday will be hot across Central Florida. Although we are not forecast to reach record temperatures, afternoon highs along the I-4 corridor will likely reach the low 90s. On Wednesday afternoon, a few records could be tied in Leesburg and Winter Haven, where temperatures could approach 95 degrees. Orlando will also be hot, possibly reaching 97 degrees. Along the Space Coast, temperatures could also approach the upper 90s.

This is all due to a high-pressure system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, which will bring sinking air that warms as it descends. Winds will also contribute to the heat, coming from the southwest and warming as they travel over the interior before arriving hot along Florida’s East Coast.

Onshore winds will keep temperatures warm, but not excessively hot, along the west coast of Florida, ranging between 82 and 86 degrees.

Aside from the heat, rain will also be scarce. The high-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere will suppress rain chances for much of this week, similar to the pattern we experienced late last week into the weekend.

A cold front is expected to move near the Florida Panhandle late Thursday into Friday, likely increasing rain chances along the I-10 corridor. At this time, it appears the front will weaken as it moves south, likely becoming stationary over Central Florida. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates on Thursday.

The Hurricane Awareness Tour makes its yearly rounds across several cities in the United States and the Western Hemisphere before the official start of hurricane season. More than a dozen staff members travel to multiple cities to give the public a firsthand look at hurricane hunter aircraft—key tools not only for researching these natural phenomena but also for saving thousands of lives and millions of dollars each year.

This public outreach event plays a crucial role in preparing communities. Local residents and visitors can speak with pilots, scientists, and meteorologists about the upcoming season and hurricanes, and see firsthand what happens inside these aircraft, where hurricane data is collected using radar, sondes, and various other onboard instruments.

The data collected during these missions help improve the accuracy and reliability of storm-track forecasts. It can shrink the cone of uncertainty and enable the National Hurricane Center to extend more precise predictions from three days to as far as five days out, giving people valuable extra time to prepare and take necessary steps to protect their families. Onboard scientists and meteorologists are responsible for carefully reviewing and validating the data gathered by the aircraft’s instruments before it is transmitted to the Hurricane Center, where it is used to produce forecasts that can ultimately save lives.

Hurricane Hunter Aircraft

Several aircraft will be available for public tours. The U.S. Air Force operates the large aircraft that fly directly through storms—the WC-130, which collects critical data.

NOAA operates three additional aircraft

• NOAA P-3 Orion: Gathers low-altitude storm data with advanced instruments
• NOAA Gulfstream IV: Studies storms at high altitude
• NOAA King Air: Used after storms to map damage and support recovery

Hurricane Hunters will showcase their aircraft for the public to explore and board, offering a truly hands-on experience. Pilots, scientists, and National Hurricane Center staff will also be present in Sarasota, Florida, to answer questions.

Be sure to arrive by 3 p.m. at Sheltair Aviation:
814 Clyde Jones Rd, Sarasota, FL 34243.

The cold front is located over southern South Florida on Sunday morning and will continue to push south very slowly. At the same time, this cold front is losing its punch and is about to transition into a stationary front, meandering over South Florida and keeping the atmosphere unstable. Moisture will also linger long enough to keep shower activity going on Sunday.

The heaviest showers have ended across Southwest Florida, although clouds will linger for most of the day. Not much rain has fallen across the Cape Coral–Fort Myers region, but the atmosphere will remain muggy on Sunday. Naples through Everglades City did receive between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch, but for most of the afternoon, the heavier showers will remain south of this region, moving into Southeast Florida. There is a small chance of a light passing shower over Naples during the first half of the afternoon.

Southeast Florida has received healthier rainfall overnight into the early morning. Rain will take a break until around noon, when another round is expected to arrive and move mainly west to east, impacting much of the suburbs and metro areas between Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

Through mid-morning Sunday, parts of Southeast Florida have received between half an inch and three-quarters of an inch. There could be up to 2 inches of additional rainfall in some areas after Sunday afternoon's rain. Please be advised that if rainfall intensifies, flood advisories may be issued. Stay away from flooded areas.

Although these amounts might not seem too impressive for South Florida, the ground is compacted from the prolonged drought, so rain is not draining easily and is ponding more readily, leading to flooding in some spots. Please avoid any flooded areas.

Monday is forecast to bring a continued chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southeast, as the front remains close enough to provide sufficient lift to produce downpours. There will be periods of partly sunny skies, but the highest chance for rain and isolated storms will come in the afternoon. Winds will be from the northeast, gusting up to 18 mph.

Southwest Florida will remain more stable, with a low chance for a brief passing shower. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies to start the week, along with toasty temperatures in the upper 80s.