If you haven’t noticed yet, you’re about to notice a change in the weather pattern across much of Florida. Florida’s rainy season typically lasts about six months, generally from May through October. In some locations — especially across North Florida and the Panhandle — the wet season often begins in late April or early May and winds down by late September.

This past dry season, and even much of the latter part of the 2025 rainy season, has been unusually dry. Many cities finished 2025 with rainfall deficits approaching a foot below average, and those deficits deepened further through the climatologically driest months of the year.

What drives Florida’s rain activity?

The sea breeze is the primary driver of thunderstorms during Florida’s rainy season, excluding tropical cyclones. During the warmer months, intense daytime heating causes air to rise over the peninsula while cooler air from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico moves inland. As these sea breezes collide, they force warm, moisture-rich air upward, often triggering the daily cycle of afternoon and evening thunderstorms that Florida is known for. As Florida transitions deeper into the wet season, increasing heat, humidity, and sea-breeze activity will gradually bring more frequent thunderstorms back to the state — a notable shift from the prolonged dry pattern many areas have experienced over the past several months.

Outside of the wet season, rainfall becomes much more dependent on the passage of cold fronts. With less daytime heating and reduced atmospheric instability, many fronts crossing the state lack the moisture and energy needed to produce widespread thunderstorms.

Stalled fronts can bring lots of rain, too.

At times, especially at the start of the season, when there are still a few fronts that make it closer to Florida, they can stall close enough to or over the state. These stationary fronts not only make the atmosphere more unstable, but if humidity remains high, they can also become the catalyst for heavy rainfall and deluges. Additionally, at times, a significant amount of deep tropical moisture is present, and a stationary front can channel it directly over the Sunshine State, often leading to significant flooding.

The wet season also coincides with the tropical season. There have been times when a stationary front could leave enough energy behind to develop tropical systems near Florida, which could bring rain on top of rain — first due to the stationary front, then, depending on the track, more rain over the same regions. Stationary fronts should be watched closely.

What could an El Niño in the summer bring?

Forecasts call for a strong El Niño to show in the summer. El Niño is a climatological pattern in the tropical Pacific that affects weather and seasonal patterns worldwide. During the summer months, El Niño can have several noticeable impacts on Florida’s weather patterns. One of the most common effects is an increase in rain chances later in the season, which can help reduce or prevent drought conditions in some areas. Increased tropical moisture and a more active subtropical jet stream can contribute to wetter conditions at times.

El Niño tends to bring less tropical storm activity by increasing upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic Basin. As a result, hurricane and tropical storm activity is often lower, leading to a generally quieter hurricane season for Florida and other coastal regions. Temperatures typically remain warm, but increased cloud cover and more frequent rainfall can help limit prolonged periods of extreme heat. However, El Niño impacts are not always consistent from year to year. In some cases, especially if the pattern develops early or remains weak, parts of late summer can still turn out drier than normal. The overall effects often depend on the strength, timing, and evolution of the El Niño pattern.

Most of Florida received rain this week. Rainfall impacted the western Peninsula for several days throughout last weekend due to a stationary front that stayed over the Panhandle for much of the weekend. As the week progressed, especially in the first half, the rainfall continued to move south, also affecting much of Central and South Florida. Luckily, the rainfall that impacted South Florida completely extinguished the wildfire that burned over 11,000 acres in western Broward.

Center

We knew this wouldn’t be enough rain to make a huge dent in the drought, but it did bring small improvements in the western portion of the Peninsula, which is clearly noticeable in the latest drought report released on Thursday, May 14.

Keep in mind that the drought report is released on Thursdays, but the cutoff date for the rainfall data is two days prior, on Tuesday. This is the main reason we are seeing improvement in the drought across the western portion of the Peninsula, mainly over Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, which are now under a severe drought, with the southern half of Santa Rosa County still experiencing extreme drought. Jackson and Washington counties, just west of Tallahassee, also improved their drought category from exceptional to extreme.

The reason we didn’t see much improvement across Central and South Florida is that the rain that fell, especially in South Florida, with some isolated areas accumulating over 3 inches, was because of the timing of the data cutoff. Remember, much of the rain fell on Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Therefore, this rainfall is not included in the latest drought report released on May 15, as the data cutoff was on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning.

If we look really closely at Palm Beach and Broward counties, the latest drought report shows that the moderate and severe drought actually crept a bit farther east, covering many areas across eastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach County. But as I mentioned, this has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the data does not include the rain that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Is there any hope in the forecast for rain?

The rainy season has officially started across much of Florida. Mother Nature seems to be getting the initial memo about this start. We will have a high-pressure system located just over the eastern Atlantic. This high-pressure system will bring a south-southeasterly flow across much of the Peninsula, keeping the moisture stream constant across Florida. By keeping this moisture stream flowing over the state and providing ample heat for the atmosphere to become unstable, we will have typical sea breezes develop. With moisture from the Atlantic, we can expect afternoon thunderstorms to develop mainly across the Peninsula, extending from South Florida through the southern part of North Florida.

We will remain under this southeasterly flow for much of next week, allowing a semi-constant-to-constant pattern to stay put, with humidity, plenty of daytime heat, and typical afternoon thunderstorms.

By next weekend, we could be looking at a front that will come close to the Southeast. If this materializes, we could be dealing with a stationary front that will bring rain, especially across the Panhandle, over the weekend. If this front moves a little farther south, it could bring more unstable weather across the Peninsula, but we will continue to monitor its evolution throughout the week and bring you updates.

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still about two weeks away, but the National Hurricane Center on Friday resumed issuing its Tropical Weather Outlook for the basin.

The daily outlooks show which areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf have the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Friday's outlook showed no tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the next seven days, which is typical for mid-May.

The outlook is updated at least four times a day and serves as one of the tools for the public to monitor tropical threats well before they organize into a trackable cyclone.

The NHC uses a color-coded system that identifies the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.

A yellow shaded area indicates a low chance of development, while an orange region signifies a medium probability, ranging from 40% to 60%. A red highlighted area indicates a high likelihood that a tropical cyclone could form.

New during the 2026 season, forecasters will introduce a gray “X” symbol to identify areas with little to no chance of development.

“Today, May 15, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026,” the National Hurricane Center said in its first outlook. “This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.”

Through most of the season, the outlook is updated at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, except after the switch to standard time in November, when issuance times shift to 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. EST.

During an average year, the first named storm typically does not form until June 20, while the first hurricane usually does not develop until mid-August.

During quieter hurricane seasons, tropical cyclone formation can lag well behind those averages.

Early forecasts for the 2026 season suggest activity may trend below normal compared with more active seasons during the last several decades.

Seasonal forecasts are calling for roughly 13 named storms to form, with six of those expected to strengthen into hurricanes, while two could become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

The first tropical storm of the season will receive the name of Arthur.

Forecasters say one of the primary reasons for the anticipated reduction in tropical activity is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The phenomenon influences weather patterns around the globe, including hurricane activity.

Stronger upper-level winds, as well as cooler water temperatures across parts of the basin, make the development of tropical disturbances more difficult.

Some climate models are showing the development of what is known as a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when water temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

The event would have significant ramifications on world weather patterns, but whether it reaches historic levels during the hurricane season remains to be determined.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking from late August through early October.

Florida will enter another dry spell as we move closer to the weekend. A cold front continues to move very slowly to the south. This cold front is associated with a low-pressure system that will sit just off the East Coast of Florida. The most unsettled conditions will be mainly across South Florida, with scattered showers still in the forecast for Thursday, but not as numerous as on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the rest of the peninsula, we will have mostly stable weather, but another cold front will push in from the north just in time to end the week. This next cold front comes a little bit stronger, and we expect it to brush off the showers and thunderstorms and change the wind pattern across the state.

Until this next front does, we can expect the flow to continue mainly from the south-southwest along the peninsula. So any showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be mainly focused across the interior and East Coast of Florida. The western half of the peninsula could see showers, but if they do, it will most likely be in the first half of the day.

Overall, more sunshine is expected across Florida on Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to rise to near-average or slightly above-average for this time of year. Across the East Coast of Florida, temperatures will remain slightly warmer because the wind has to travel over land, which makes the air warmer and the temperatures warmer.

After the next full cold front pushes through Florida on Friday, the winds will return mainly from the east-southeast for the weekend. There will be slightly drier air, so any showers and thunderstorms that develop will most likely be across the interior during the afternoon and will be very isolated.

The winds coming mainly from the southeast are due to a high-pressure system located just to the east of Florida, which will provide this southeastern flow throughout the weekend. Keep in mind that the southeasterly flow will likely increase the risk of recurrence along the East Coast of Florida throughout the weekend and into early next week.

Highs across the state will be around the mid to upper 80s throughout the weekend, especially across the interior and western portions of Florida. Mornings will remain muggy and warm with temperatures near average for this time of year.

Keep in mind that a new drought report will be released on Thursday morning. There is a small caveat with this report: it will not include the rain that fell across much of Central and South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Drought reports are released two days later, on the following Thursday, and include data from Tuesday morning through Tuesday morning of the following week. Therefore, the report to be released on May 14 in the morning includes data cut off on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning. We will bring you an update as soon as a drought monitor report is released.

The final takeaway from hurricane prep week may be the broadest—and the most important: start now.
In Florida, where no two seasons look exactly alike and no two storms leave the same kind of mark, the people in the strongest position are usually the ones who made decisions early—before the forecast turned urgent, before the roads filled, and before the pressure set in. Here's meteorologist Leslie Hudson with more:

And finally, remember: the goal isn’t perfection. It’s progress—because even one step taken early can change how safely and confidently you move through the next storm.

NOAA says some of the most overlooked dangers come after the storm. In Florida, recovery can be one of the riskiest phases—when people return, cleanup begins, and hidden hazards start to take over.

Meteorologist Leslie Hudson takes a look at some of those hidden dangers. Click the YouTube link below for more:

After a hurricane, emergency responders may be overwhelmed. So after the storm, help may not arrive right away. Roads may be blocked, and communication systems may be overloaded. If calls won’t go through, try texting, email, or social media instead.

Once a storm is underway, Florida’s biggest safety priorities are sheltering from wind, staying out of floodwater, and continuing to monitor official warnings. Meteorologist Leslie Hudson has more:

Local officials can provide you with up-to-date information as the situation changes in your area. Evacuation orders may still be given at this late stage — leave immediately if ordered!

Follow recommended evacuation routes — do not take shortcuts, as they may be blocked.

Be alert for road hazards such as washed-out roads or bridges and downed power lines. Never drive through floodwaters.

They’re different components that will allow temperatures to soar across much of Florida. First, a high-pressure system is located over the Caribbean. This high will linger around the same region for much of this week and into next week. This upper-level high-pressure system will bring sinking air across much of the area, especially impacting South and Central Florida. Warm air sinks, and as it sinks, it warms even further, allowing temperatures to rise. Also, a high-pressure system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere suppresses rain chances. We’re not expecting much rain across the southern half of Florida through the end of this week.

The next chance for a shower or two will likely arrive at the end of the weekend and continue into early next week. Around the weekend, the high-pressure system will weaken enough to allow the next front to push through. However, the front before that will not reach Florida. Instead, it will stall over the Southeast, increasing rain chances between Thursday night and Saturday morning across the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama.

These will be beneficial rains across the Panhandle, as they will likely be steady. However, keep in mind that isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across the western portion of the state. There is a chance that parts of the Panhandle could receive anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain during the next three days. More rain is expected on Sunday for Mother’s Day and into early next week as another front pushes through. This is the same front that will eventually move across the Florida Peninsula.

Soaring Temperatures

Highs across Florida this week will be very hot. An area of high pressure is bringing winds in from the west. Winds from the south and southwest will bring lots of warmth and humidity across the Sunshine State as well.

As a result, temperatures will feel even hotter, especially across the interior of Florida and along the East Coast, from the Space Coast to Southeast Florida. Heat index values will climb significantly across the state.

For Thursday, the record high in Orlando is 98°. We could come close to that record, but temperatures will likely stay just below it on Thursday. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s record high, established in 1980, is 91°, and the forecast high is 94°. Daytona Beach could also set a new record if temperatures exceed 93°.

Dangerous heat will also impact South Florida. Feels-like temperatures could approach the triple digits not only on Friday, but throughout the weekend as well. Friday’s high temperature could come close to the record of 93 ° set in 1998. Miami’s forecast high will be even closer and could possibly establish a new record if temperatures reach 94°. That record was set in 2022.

Keep in mind that temperatures across western Florida will be slightly lower due to onshore wind flow. Nonetheless, these are dangerously hot temperatures across much of the state.

Make sure to avoid outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day. Stay hydrated, especially if you plan to spend time outside, and make sure children are also staying hydrated and safe from the heat.

Rain chances will slowly increase across Central Florida on Sunday, Mother’s Day. There is a slight chance of showers across Southeast Florida on Sunday, but they will remain very isolated. Monday will bring better shower coverage across Southeast Florida as the next front moves in, and scattered shower activity is expected to continue across parts of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will continue to update you about the next chance for rain later this week.

When a storm threatens, the ability to pivot matters. Roads fill quickly, and conditions can deteriorate well before landfall—making timing everything. Meteorologist Leslie Hudson has more in this YouTube video

Always follow evacuation orders from local authorities — don’t wait for a hurricane to intensify before deciding to follow the order.

You want to leave early enough to avoid being trapped by severe weather. If time allows, unplug electrical equipment, leave a note detailing your whereabouts, and check to see if any neighbors need a ride.

• FLASH: Find Your Evacuation Zone
  
• Ready.gov: Evacuation

Always follow evacuation orders from local authorities — don’t wait for a hurricane to intensify before deciding to follow the order. You want to leave early enough to avoid being trapped by severe weather.

Tomorrow, we shift from planning ahead to riding it out—how to stay protected when the storm is no longer coming… but here.

One of the most common mistakes during hurricane season is focusing too narrowly on the cone. NOAA’s message today is simple: understand the forecast—and remember, the cone does not show the full footprint of danger.

Rely on official forecasts and trusted weather sources—not sensational headlines—to understand a storm’s potential impacts. Click the YouTube video below to learn more.

The forecast cone shows where the storm’s center is most likely to track.
It does not show the size of the storm—and it does not limit where impacts can occur. Those impacts can reach far inland and well outside the cone.

NHC Video: How to use the cone graphic

The next step is to stop treating the cone like a comfort zone—and start focusing on the specific hazards forecast for your community. Because when those risks begin to take shape…timing your decisions can make all the difference.