Most of Florida received rain this week. Rainfall impacted the western Peninsula for several days throughout last weekend due to a stationary front that stayed over the Panhandle for much of the weekend. As the week progressed, especially in the first half, the rainfall continued to move south, also affecting much of Central and South Florida. Luckily, the rainfall that impacted South Florida completely extinguished the wildfire that burned over 11,000 acres in western Broward.

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We knew this wouldn’t be enough rain to make a huge dent in the drought, but it did bring small improvements in the western portion of the Peninsula, which is clearly noticeable in the latest drought report released on Thursday, May 14.

Keep in mind that the drought report is released on Thursdays, but the cutoff date for the rainfall data is two days prior, on Tuesday. This is the main reason we are seeing improvement in the drought across the western portion of the Peninsula, mainly over Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, which are now under a severe drought, with the southern half of Santa Rosa County still experiencing extreme drought. Jackson and Washington counties, just west of Tallahassee, also improved their drought category from exceptional to extreme.

The reason we didn’t see much improvement across Central and South Florida is that the rain that fell, especially in South Florida, with some isolated areas accumulating over 3 inches, was because of the timing of the data cutoff. Remember, much of the rain fell on Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Therefore, this rainfall is not included in the latest drought report released on May 15, as the data cutoff was on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning.

If we look really closely at Palm Beach and Broward counties, the latest drought report shows that the moderate and severe drought actually crept a bit farther east, covering many areas across eastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach County. But as I mentioned, this has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the data does not include the rain that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Is there any hope in the forecast for rain?

The rainy season has officially started across much of Florida. Mother Nature seems to be getting the initial memo about this start. We will have a high-pressure system located just over the eastern Atlantic. This high-pressure system will bring a south-southeasterly flow across much of the Peninsula, keeping the moisture stream constant across Florida. By keeping this moisture stream flowing over the state and providing ample heat for the atmosphere to become unstable, we will have typical sea breezes develop. With moisture from the Atlantic, we can expect afternoon thunderstorms to develop mainly across the Peninsula, extending from South Florida through the southern part of North Florida.

We will remain under this southeasterly flow for much of next week, allowing a semi-constant-to-constant pattern to stay put, with humidity, plenty of daytime heat, and typical afternoon thunderstorms.

By next weekend, we could be looking at a front that will come close to the Southeast. If this materializes, we could be dealing with a stationary front that will bring rain, especially across the Panhandle, over the weekend. If this front moves a little farther south, it could bring more unstable weather across the Peninsula, but we will continue to monitor its evolution throughout the week and bring you updates.

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still about two weeks away, but the National Hurricane Center on Friday resumed issuing its Tropical Weather Outlook for the basin.

The daily outlooks show which areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf have the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Friday's outlook showed no tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the next seven days, which is typical for mid-May.

The outlook is updated at least four times a day and serves as one of the tools for the public to monitor tropical threats well before they organize into a trackable cyclone.

The NHC uses a color-coded system that identifies the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.

A yellow shaded area indicates a low chance of development, while an orange region signifies a medium probability, ranging from 40% to 60%. A red highlighted area indicates a high likelihood that a tropical cyclone could form.

New during the 2026 season, forecasters will introduce a gray “X” symbol to identify areas with little to no chance of development.

“Today, May 15, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026,” the National Hurricane Center said in its first outlook. “This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.”

Through most of the season, the outlook is updated at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, except after the switch to standard time in November, when issuance times shift to 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. EST.

During an average year, the first named storm typically does not form until June 20, while the first hurricane usually does not develop until mid-August.

During quieter hurricane seasons, tropical cyclone formation can lag well behind those averages.

Early forecasts for the 2026 season suggest activity may trend below normal compared with more active seasons during the last several decades.

Seasonal forecasts are calling for roughly 13 named storms to form, with six of those expected to strengthen into hurricanes, while two could become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

The first tropical storm of the season will receive the name of Arthur.

Forecasters say one of the primary reasons for the anticipated reduction in tropical activity is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The phenomenon influences weather patterns around the globe, including hurricane activity.

Stronger upper-level winds, as well as cooler water temperatures across parts of the basin, make the development of tropical disturbances more difficult.

Some climate models are showing the development of what is known as a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when water temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

The event would have significant ramifications on world weather patterns, but whether it reaches historic levels during the hurricane season remains to be determined.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking from late August through early October.

Two tornadoes touched down in Pasco County on Tuesday afternoon, damaging homes as severe thunderstorms moved across the Florida Peninsula.

According to the National Weather Service office serving the Tampa region, both tornadoes were rated EF-0, with peak winds estimated at around 85 mph.

No injuries were reported, and damage was considered minor.
The first tornado developed near Hudson after the storm cell likely spent several hours producing waterspouts over the Gulf.

While over land, the tornado traveled just over one mile and reached a maximum width of about 400 yards.

Survey crews said tree branches fell onto power lines, while several homeowners reported roof and carport damage.

About 20 minutes after the first tornado, a second area of rotation developed in the Shady Hills area of Pasco County.

Damage there mainly consisted of snapped tree branches, as the tornado remained on the ground for less than a mile.

Both tornadoes prompted the issuance of Tornado Warnings, but forecasters said the overall severe weather setup was too isolated to warrant a wider Tornado Watch ahead of the storms.

Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita Scale from EF-0 to EF-5, with lower-end tornadoes considered to be weaker and capable of causing relatively minor damage.

Tornado reports down around state

Tornado activity across the state is down more than 70% compared to what Florida typically experiences year-to-date.

So far, the Sunshine State has recorded only four tornadoes, well below the usual total of at least 15 by this point in the year.

In addition to the two tornadoes reported north of Tampa, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Walton County in January, while an EF-0 tornado was confirmed in Miami-Dade County in April.

None of the tornadoes caused major damage, and all produced winds below 100 mph.

A lack of moisture-rich cold fronts during the winter and spring has largely contributed to the reduced number of tornado reports statewide.

A lack of severe weather during the cooler months is common during La Niña patterns, which was experienced from 2025 into 2026.

By contrast, El Niño events are often associated with an increase in severe weather during the winter and early spring.

According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, June and September are typically the busiest months for tornado activity across Florida, as daily thunderstorm coverage increases and hurricane season ramps up.

Florida will enter another dry spell as we move closer to the weekend. A cold front continues to move very slowly to the south. This cold front is associated with a low-pressure system that will sit just off the East Coast of Florida. The most unsettled conditions will be mainly across South Florida, with scattered showers still in the forecast for Thursday, but not as numerous as on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the rest of the peninsula, we will have mostly stable weather, but another cold front will push in from the north just in time to end the week. This next cold front comes a little bit stronger, and we expect it to brush off the showers and thunderstorms and change the wind pattern across the state.

Until this next front does, we can expect the flow to continue mainly from the south-southwest along the peninsula. So any showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be mainly focused across the interior and East Coast of Florida. The western half of the peninsula could see showers, but if they do, it will most likely be in the first half of the day.

Overall, more sunshine is expected across Florida on Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to rise to near-average or slightly above-average for this time of year. Across the East Coast of Florida, temperatures will remain slightly warmer because the wind has to travel over land, which makes the air warmer and the temperatures warmer.

After the next full cold front pushes through Florida on Friday, the winds will return mainly from the east-southeast for the weekend. There will be slightly drier air, so any showers and thunderstorms that develop will most likely be across the interior during the afternoon and will be very isolated.

The winds coming mainly from the southeast are due to a high-pressure system located just to the east of Florida, which will provide this southeastern flow throughout the weekend. Keep in mind that the southeasterly flow will likely increase the risk of recurrence along the East Coast of Florida throughout the weekend and into early next week.

Highs across the state will be around the mid to upper 80s throughout the weekend, especially across the interior and western portions of Florida. Mornings will remain muggy and warm with temperatures near average for this time of year.

Keep in mind that a new drought report will be released on Thursday morning. There is a small caveat with this report: it will not include the rain that fell across much of Central and South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Drought reports are released two days later, on the following Thursday, and include data from Tuesday morning through Tuesday morning of the following week. Therefore, the report to be released on May 14 in the morning includes data cut off on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning. We will bring you an update as soon as a drought monitor report is released.

Humidity is creeping up across Florida, especially in the state's southern half. Temperatures across Central and South Florida will continue to run well-above average throughout the weekend, with little chance for showers and storms, less across South Florida.

Friday produced record temperatures across Key West, with a high temperature reaching 92, breaking the record of 91 on a day like today. Although some Central Florida cities, like Melbourne and Daytona, set record highs on Thursday, Friday afternoon was scorching, but no records were broken. It was also very hot across South Florida, although temperatures there stayed just shy of records. A similar pattern is expected Saturday, with record high temperatures once again possible across Central Florida.

Forecast highs across Florida will remain well above average throughout the weekend. Although conditions will stay mostly dry across South Florida, a stray light shower could develop across Southeast Florida Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, rain chances across Southeast Florida will increase slightly to around 20 percent. Overall, the weather should not significantly impact outdoor plans, as any showers that develop will move relatively quickly.

Central Florida will remain dry through Saturday, but by Sunday, the first front will stall across the state, helping to ignite a few isolated thunderstorms. Some of these storms could reach the Orlando area late Sunday afternoon as they move from north to south.

The heaviest and most persistent storm activity will remain focused across North Florida and the Panhandle, where a few storms could become severe, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

Florida’s annual lovebug season has returned, but the worst drought in more than two decades has led to smaller swarms of these benign insects being spotted.

Plecia nearctica typically emerge in large numbers during the late spring and fall but this year, sightings have been reduced - an outcome largely attributed to state's the dry conditions.

According to experts with the University of Florida, lovebugs spend most of their lives underground in the larval stage before emerging as adults.

Their development is considered to be highly dependent on environmental conditions, such as temperature, humidity and soil moisture.

Reduced moisture causes leaves and other organic material to decompose slower than is typical, leading to reduced populations of bugs.

Drought conditions are the most extreme along the I-10 and I-75 corridor, with some areas resembling desert-like conditions.

Farther south, drought conditions have been less severe, allowing for somewhat more typical insect activity in southern portions of the state.

While rounds of rainfall over recent days have increased moisture levels, the precipitation has not been widespread enough to reverse precipitation deficits.

During previous seasons, lovebug activity has generally increased after rainfall events, as evidence by their splattering on vehicles.

Lovebugs are considered primarily to be a nuisance pest because they do not bite, sting or spread diseases, with their biggest impact on motorists.

If left uncleaned, the insects’ remains can damage vehicle paint and leave windshields dirty, reducing visibility for motorists.

Entomologists say lovebugs are most active during the warmest part of the day, typically from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., when temperatures climb above 84 degrees.

Activity also tends to increase during time periods of calmer winds and elevated humidity levels.

Contrary to long-running beliefs, the University of Florida did not create the bugs through any type of failed scientific experiment.

Researchers say the insects naturally migrated from Central America to Gulf Coast region during the early 20th century before eventually making it to the Sunshine State during the 1940s.

Historically, populations of lovebugs have fluctuated depending on climate patterns and have returned to a more active state once more typical weather conditions take hold.

Florida’s transition into the rainy season during the coming weeks has the chance to improve soil moisture levels and create more favorable conditions for lovebugs later this year.

They’re different components that will allow temperatures to soar across much of Florida. First, a high-pressure system is located over the Caribbean. This high will linger around the same region for much of this week and into next week. This upper-level high-pressure system will bring sinking air across much of the area, especially impacting South and Central Florida. Warm air sinks, and as it sinks, it warms even further, allowing temperatures to rise. Also, a high-pressure system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere suppresses rain chances. We’re not expecting much rain across the southern half of Florida through the end of this week.

The next chance for a shower or two will likely arrive at the end of the weekend and continue into early next week. Around the weekend, the high-pressure system will weaken enough to allow the next front to push through. However, the front before that will not reach Florida. Instead, it will stall over the Southeast, increasing rain chances between Thursday night and Saturday morning across the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama.

These will be beneficial rains across the Panhandle, as they will likely be steady. However, keep in mind that isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across the western portion of the state. There is a chance that parts of the Panhandle could receive anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain during the next three days. More rain is expected on Sunday for Mother’s Day and into early next week as another front pushes through. This is the same front that will eventually move across the Florida Peninsula.

Soaring Temperatures

Highs across Florida this week will be very hot. An area of high pressure is bringing winds in from the west. Winds from the south and southwest will bring lots of warmth and humidity across the Sunshine State as well.

As a result, temperatures will feel even hotter, especially across the interior of Florida and along the East Coast, from the Space Coast to Southeast Florida. Heat index values will climb significantly across the state.

For Thursday, the record high in Orlando is 98°. We could come close to that record, but temperatures will likely stay just below it on Thursday. Meanwhile, Melbourne’s record high, established in 1980, is 91°, and the forecast high is 94°. Daytona Beach could also set a new record if temperatures exceed 93°.

Dangerous heat will also impact South Florida. Feels-like temperatures could approach the triple digits not only on Friday, but throughout the weekend as well. Friday’s high temperature could come close to the record of 93 ° set in 1998. Miami’s forecast high will be even closer and could possibly establish a new record if temperatures reach 94°. That record was set in 2022.

Keep in mind that temperatures across western Florida will be slightly lower due to onshore wind flow. Nonetheless, these are dangerously hot temperatures across much of the state.

Make sure to avoid outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day. Stay hydrated, especially if you plan to spend time outside, and make sure children are also staying hydrated and safe from the heat.

Rain chances will slowly increase across Central Florida on Sunday, Mother’s Day. There is a slight chance of showers across Southeast Florida on Sunday, but they will remain very isolated. Monday will bring better shower coverage across Southeast Florida as the next front moves in, and scattered shower activity is expected to continue across parts of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will continue to update you about the next chance for rain later this week.

The Hurricane Awareness Tour makes its yearly rounds across several cities in the United States and the Western Hemisphere before the official start of hurricane season. More than a dozen staff members travel to multiple cities to give the public a firsthand look at hurricane hunter aircraft—key tools not only for researching these natural phenomena but also for saving thousands of lives and millions of dollars each year.

This public outreach event plays a crucial role in preparing communities. Local residents and visitors can speak with pilots, scientists, and meteorologists about the upcoming season and hurricanes, and see firsthand what happens inside these aircraft, where hurricane data is collected using radar, sondes, and various other onboard instruments.

The data collected during these missions help improve the accuracy and reliability of storm-track forecasts. It can shrink the cone of uncertainty and enable the National Hurricane Center to extend more precise predictions from three days to as far as five days out, giving people valuable extra time to prepare and take necessary steps to protect their families. Onboard scientists and meteorologists are responsible for carefully reviewing and validating the data gathered by the aircraft’s instruments before it is transmitted to the Hurricane Center, where it is used to produce forecasts that can ultimately save lives.

Hurricane Hunter Aircraft

Several aircraft will be available for public tours. The U.S. Air Force operates the large aircraft that fly directly through storms—the WC-130, which collects critical data.

NOAA operates three additional aircraft

• NOAA P-3 Orion: Gathers low-altitude storm data with advanced instruments
• NOAA Gulfstream IV: Studies storms at high altitude
• NOAA King Air: Used after storms to map damage and support recovery

Hurricane Hunters will showcase their aircraft for the public to explore and board, offering a truly hands-on experience. Pilots, scientists, and National Hurricane Center staff will also be present in Sarasota, Florida, to answer questions.

Be sure to arrive by 3 p.m. at Sheltair Aviation:
814 Clyde Jones Rd, Sarasota, FL 34243.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and preseason outlooks suggest activity across the basin could be more subdued than average.

During the 2025 season, 13 named storms formed, which is near the long-term average, but no hurricanes made a direct landfall in the United States, making it a relatively quiet year for the Southeast.

The near-average activity occurred during a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is commonly referred to as ENSO.

This climate cycle, which includes both El Niño and La Niña phases, plays a significant role in shaping hurricane activity around the globe.

Heading into 2026, forecasters expect El Niño conditions to develop across the Pacific Ocean.

El Niños are known to lead to increased wind shear across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf, which creates a more hostile environment for tropical cyclone organization.

Climatologically, the first named storm of the Atlantic season typically forms around June 20, while the first hurricane usually develops by mid-August.

Changes to forecast products

The National Hurricane Center announced several updates to its forecast products ahead of the season, designed to improve how storm risks are communicated.

One of the most significant updates involves the forecast cone, which will now display inland Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings.

Previously, the cone only showed coastal warnings, but testing during previous seasons found strong support for including inland alerts.

Forecasters contend that changes will better convey the impacts of tropical cyclones, which can extend hundreds of miles from the coast.

The size of the forecast cone has also been slightly reduced because of improvements in forecast errors.

At 24 hours, the cone is now about 39 nautical miles wide and expands outward to roughly 200 nautical miles at five days.
Additional changes will also take place with the agency's daily graphical tropical weather outlook.

Systems with little to no chance of development will now appear as a gray “X,” replacing the previous use of a yellow symbol. The yellow “X” will remain for disturbances with at least some chance of development.

Experimental products, including an elliptical cone and enhanced marine graphics, will also be tested during the 2026 season.

2026 Atlantic hurricane season predictions

Colorado State University outlook: The first outlook from Colorado State University for the 2026 hurricane season suggests that the Atlantic basin could be in store for below-average activity, with 13 named storms, six of which are expected to become hurricanes and two reaching major hurricane status.

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist and lead author of the report, stated. “Our analog seasons have ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”

North Carolina State University outlook: For the second year in a row, experts at North Carolina State University expect the hurricane season to fall in line with average. Instead of releasing a single figure, they provide a range for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. In 2026, the group expects 12 to 15 named storms, six to nine hurricanes, including two to three major hurricanes.

University of Arizona outlook: University of Arizona's outlook is the most aggressive of any major institution. Forecasters expect 20 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major cyclones. Even though El Niño will be present, forecasters at UA expect water temperatures to remain surprisingly warm across the Atlantic, leading to increased activity.

“The big story with this season will be the possibility of a very strong El Niño, in fact the highest SST values in the Niño 3.4 region in our model. This makes our forecast of an active year surprising, but another factor to consider is the high forecasted SSTs in the Atlantic, which are among the highest in the model. The setup feels similar to 2023, though the Atlantic SST anomaly is not as high and the ENSO anomaly is higher. Our forecast this year is very similar to 2023, where the observed values fell within our ranges for all categories except major hurricanes,” forecasters stated.

2026 Atlantic hurricane storm names

Twenty-one names make up the list used to identify cyclones across the Atlantic basin.

The list of names is repeated every six years and is maintained by the World Meteorological Organization.

The last time there were cyclones named Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal was in 2020.

The WMO removed the name Laura following its devastating strike along the Louisiana coastline as a Category 4 hurricane in August 2020 and replaced it with Leah, which will be used for the first time in 2026.

Here are the 2026 storm names with pronunciations:

• Arthur (AR-thur)
• Bertha (BUR-thuh)
• Cristobal (krees-TOH-bahl)
• Dolly (DAH-lee)
• Edouard (eh-DWARD)
• Fay (fay)
• Gonzalo (gohn-SAH-loh)
• Hanna (HAN-uh)
• Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs)
• Josephine (JOH-seh-feen)
• Kyle (KY-ull)
• Leah (LEE-ah)
• Marco (MAR-koe)
• Nana (NA-na)
• Omar (OH-mar)
• Paulette (pawl-LET)
• Rene (re-NAY)
• Sally (SAL-ee)
• Teddy (TEHD-ee)
• Vicky (VIH-kee)
• Wilfred (WILL-fred)
  

  

The cold front is located over southern South Florida on Sunday morning and will continue to push south very slowly. At the same time, this cold front is losing its punch and is about to transition into a stationary front, meandering over South Florida and keeping the atmosphere unstable. Moisture will also linger long enough to keep shower activity going on Sunday.

The heaviest showers have ended across Southwest Florida, although clouds will linger for most of the day. Not much rain has fallen across the Cape Coral–Fort Myers region, but the atmosphere will remain muggy on Sunday. Naples through Everglades City did receive between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch, but for most of the afternoon, the heavier showers will remain south of this region, moving into Southeast Florida. There is a small chance of a light passing shower over Naples during the first half of the afternoon.

Southeast Florida has received healthier rainfall overnight into the early morning. Rain will take a break until around noon, when another round is expected to arrive and move mainly west to east, impacting much of the suburbs and metro areas between Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

Through mid-morning Sunday, parts of Southeast Florida have received between half an inch and three-quarters of an inch. There could be up to 2 inches of additional rainfall in some areas after Sunday afternoon's rain. Please be advised that if rainfall intensifies, flood advisories may be issued. Stay away from flooded areas.

Although these amounts might not seem too impressive for South Florida, the ground is compacted from the prolonged drought, so rain is not draining easily and is ponding more readily, leading to flooding in some spots. Please avoid any flooded areas.

Monday is forecast to bring a continued chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southeast, as the front remains close enough to provide sufficient lift to produce downpours. There will be periods of partly sunny skies, but the highest chance for rain and isolated storms will come in the afternoon. Winds will be from the northeast, gusting up to 18 mph.

Southwest Florida will remain more stable, with a low chance for a brief passing shower. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies to start the week, along with toasty temperatures in the upper 80s.