Most of Florida received rain this week. Rainfall impacted the western Peninsula for several days throughout last weekend due to a stationary front that stayed over the Panhandle for much of the weekend. As the week progressed, especially in the first half, the rainfall continued to move south, also affecting much of Central and South Florida. Luckily, the rainfall that impacted South Florida completely extinguished the wildfire that burned over 11,000 acres in western Broward.

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We knew this wouldn’t be enough rain to make a huge dent in the drought, but it did bring small improvements in the western portion of the Peninsula, which is clearly noticeable in the latest drought report released on Thursday, May 14.

Keep in mind that the drought report is released on Thursdays, but the cutoff date for the rainfall data is two days prior, on Tuesday. This is the main reason we are seeing improvement in the drought across the western portion of the Peninsula, mainly over Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, which are now under a severe drought, with the southern half of Santa Rosa County still experiencing extreme drought. Jackson and Washington counties, just west of Tallahassee, also improved their drought category from exceptional to extreme.

The reason we didn’t see much improvement across Central and South Florida is that the rain that fell, especially in South Florida, with some isolated areas accumulating over 3 inches, was because of the timing of the data cutoff. Remember, much of the rain fell on Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon. Therefore, this rainfall is not included in the latest drought report released on May 15, as the data cutoff was on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning.

If we look really closely at Palm Beach and Broward counties, the latest drought report shows that the moderate and severe drought actually crept a bit farther east, covering many areas across eastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach County. But as I mentioned, this has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the data does not include the rain that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Is there any hope in the forecast for rain?

The rainy season has officially started across much of Florida. Mother Nature seems to be getting the initial memo about this start. We will have a high-pressure system located just over the eastern Atlantic. This high-pressure system will bring a south-southeasterly flow across much of the Peninsula, keeping the moisture stream constant across Florida. By keeping this moisture stream flowing over the state and providing ample heat for the atmosphere to become unstable, we will have typical sea breezes develop. With moisture from the Atlantic, we can expect afternoon thunderstorms to develop mainly across the Peninsula, extending from South Florida through the southern part of North Florida.

We will remain under this southeasterly flow for much of next week, allowing a semi-constant-to-constant pattern to stay put, with humidity, plenty of daytime heat, and typical afternoon thunderstorms.

By next weekend, we could be looking at a front that will come close to the Southeast. If this materializes, we could be dealing with a stationary front that will bring rain, especially across the Panhandle, over the weekend. If this front moves a little farther south, it could bring more unstable weather across the Peninsula, but we will continue to monitor its evolution throughout the week and bring you updates.

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still about two weeks away, but the National Hurricane Center on Friday resumed issuing its Tropical Weather Outlook for the basin.

The daily outlooks show which areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf have the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Friday's outlook showed no tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the next seven days, which is typical for mid-May.

The outlook is updated at least four times a day and serves as one of the tools for the public to monitor tropical threats well before they organize into a trackable cyclone.

The NHC uses a color-coded system that identifies the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.

A yellow shaded area indicates a low chance of development, while an orange region signifies a medium probability, ranging from 40% to 60%. A red highlighted area indicates a high likelihood that a tropical cyclone could form.

New during the 2026 season, forecasters will introduce a gray “X” symbol to identify areas with little to no chance of development.

“Today, May 15, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026,” the National Hurricane Center said in its first outlook. “This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.”

Through most of the season, the outlook is updated at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, except after the switch to standard time in November, when issuance times shift to 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. EST.

During an average year, the first named storm typically does not form until June 20, while the first hurricane usually does not develop until mid-August.

During quieter hurricane seasons, tropical cyclone formation can lag well behind those averages.

Early forecasts for the 2026 season suggest activity may trend below normal compared with more active seasons during the last several decades.

Seasonal forecasts are calling for roughly 13 named storms to form, with six of those expected to strengthen into hurricanes, while two could become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

The first tropical storm of the season will receive the name of Arthur.

Forecasters say one of the primary reasons for the anticipated reduction in tropical activity is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The phenomenon influences weather patterns around the globe, including hurricane activity.

Stronger upper-level winds, as well as cooler water temperatures across parts of the basin, make the development of tropical disturbances more difficult.

Some climate models are showing the development of what is known as a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when water temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

The event would have significant ramifications on world weather patterns, but whether it reaches historic levels during the hurricane season remains to be determined.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking from late August through early October.

Two tornadoes touched down in Pasco County on Tuesday afternoon, damaging homes as severe thunderstorms moved across the Florida Peninsula.

According to the National Weather Service office serving the Tampa region, both tornadoes were rated EF-0, with peak winds estimated at around 85 mph.

No injuries were reported, and damage was considered minor.
The first tornado developed near Hudson after the storm cell likely spent several hours producing waterspouts over the Gulf.

While over land, the tornado traveled just over one mile and reached a maximum width of about 400 yards.

Survey crews said tree branches fell onto power lines, while several homeowners reported roof and carport damage.

About 20 minutes after the first tornado, a second area of rotation developed in the Shady Hills area of Pasco County.

Damage there mainly consisted of snapped tree branches, as the tornado remained on the ground for less than a mile.

Both tornadoes prompted the issuance of Tornado Warnings, but forecasters said the overall severe weather setup was too isolated to warrant a wider Tornado Watch ahead of the storms.

Tornadoes are rated on the Enhanced Fujita Scale from EF-0 to EF-5, with lower-end tornadoes considered to be weaker and capable of causing relatively minor damage.

Tornado reports down around state

Tornado activity across the state is down more than 70% compared to what Florida typically experiences year-to-date.

So far, the Sunshine State has recorded only four tornadoes, well below the usual total of at least 15 by this point in the year.

In addition to the two tornadoes reported north of Tampa, an EF-1 tornado touched down in Walton County in January, while an EF-0 tornado was confirmed in Miami-Dade County in April.

None of the tornadoes caused major damage, and all produced winds below 100 mph.

A lack of moisture-rich cold fronts during the winter and spring has largely contributed to the reduced number of tornado reports statewide.

A lack of severe weather during the cooler months is common during La Niña patterns, which was experienced from 2025 into 2026.

By contrast, El Niño events are often associated with an increase in severe weather during the winter and early spring.

According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, June and September are typically the busiest months for tornado activity across Florida, as daily thunderstorm coverage increases and hurricane season ramps up.

Florida will enter another dry spell as we move closer to the weekend. A cold front continues to move very slowly to the south. This cold front is associated with a low-pressure system that will sit just off the East Coast of Florida. The most unsettled conditions will be mainly across South Florida, with scattered showers still in the forecast for Thursday, but not as numerous as on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the rest of the peninsula, we will have mostly stable weather, but another cold front will push in from the north just in time to end the week. This next cold front comes a little bit stronger, and we expect it to brush off the showers and thunderstorms and change the wind pattern across the state.

Until this next front does, we can expect the flow to continue mainly from the south-southwest along the peninsula. So any showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be mainly focused across the interior and East Coast of Florida. The western half of the peninsula could see showers, but if they do, it will most likely be in the first half of the day.

Overall, more sunshine is expected across Florida on Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to rise to near-average or slightly above-average for this time of year. Across the East Coast of Florida, temperatures will remain slightly warmer because the wind has to travel over land, which makes the air warmer and the temperatures warmer.

After the next full cold front pushes through Florida on Friday, the winds will return mainly from the east-southeast for the weekend. There will be slightly drier air, so any showers and thunderstorms that develop will most likely be across the interior during the afternoon and will be very isolated.

The winds coming mainly from the southeast are due to a high-pressure system located just to the east of Florida, which will provide this southeastern flow throughout the weekend. Keep in mind that the southeasterly flow will likely increase the risk of recurrence along the East Coast of Florida throughout the weekend and into early next week.

Highs across the state will be around the mid to upper 80s throughout the weekend, especially across the interior and western portions of Florida. Mornings will remain muggy and warm with temperatures near average for this time of year.

Keep in mind that a new drought report will be released on Thursday morning. There is a small caveat with this report: it will not include the rain that fell across much of Central and South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Drought reports are released two days later, on the following Thursday, and include data from Tuesday morning through Tuesday morning of the following week. Therefore, the report to be released on May 14 in the morning includes data cut off on Tuesday, May 12, in the morning. We will bring you an update as soon as a drought monitor report is released.

A cold front will move southeast across Florida which should increase the chances for widespread rain showers and pop-up thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) risk for damaging wind gusts between 40-50 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter both inland and along the First, Space, and Treasure coasts. Even though this ranking is at the lowest end of the severity scale, localized areas may be affected at a more extensive level.

The cold front combined with the sea breeze will create instability making thunderstorms more likely, especially along the coasts.

The panhandle should get widespread rain showers with rumbles of thunder.

North Florida will get pop-up thunderstorms this evening with widespread rain showers overnight. The threat for damaging winds and small hail should ramp up early Tuesday morning.

Central and South Florida will feel the brunt of the storms early Tuesday evening.

The lingering cold front and sea breeze has the potential to cause localized flash flooding along the Space Coast. Anywhere between 3'' to 7'' of rainfall is possible which would make any commute dangerous.

The Treasure Coast may also be at risk for flash flooding since it may receive up to 5'' of rainfall.

The Florida Panhandle and Big Bend could also see up to 5'' in localized areas.

South Florida's rainfall will reside mostly around the Florida Heartland and the Treasure and Gold Coasts. Southwest Florida may only receive between a trace to 0.50'' of rain by Wednesday morning.

Storms should clear up for South Florida by Wednesday morning, but more pop-up thunderstorms are still likely across North and Central Florida.

Since the state is still under a bad drought, this will also increase the chances for flash flooding. This situation is similar to watering a potted plant; if the plant has not been watered in a while, it takes much longer for the water to soak into the soil. Just like a dry plant, it will take more time for larger amounts of rainfall to soak into the ground which will cause more rain to run off into the roads.

As a reminder, never drive through any unknown depths of water. Make sure you are in a sheltered area. The FPREN team of meteorologists will continue to keep everyone updated as the weather system unfolds.

The final takeaway from hurricane prep week may be the broadest—and the most important: start now.
In Florida, where no two seasons look exactly alike and no two storms leave the same kind of mark, the people in the strongest position are usually the ones who made decisions early—before the forecast turned urgent, before the roads filled, and before the pressure set in. Here's meteorologist Leslie Hudson with more:

And finally, remember: the goal isn’t perfection. It’s progress—because even one step taken early can change how safely and confidently you move through the next storm.

Beneficial rain will continue to impact Florida’s Panhandle and North Florida throughout the weekend.

A cold front is gradually weakening as it pushes southward across the state. Even so, the front will bring numerous showers and the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm on Saturday, especially along the Interstate 10 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms will move intermittently from west to east across the region throughout the day.

On Sunday, the front stays meandering nearby, slowly inching closer to Central Florida. This will allow isolated thunderstorms to develop along the northern fringe of Central Florida, while showers and thunderstorms continue to impact much of the Panhandle and North Florida. Periods of rain and storms are expected on and off through the day. Any thunderstorms that become severe could produce isolated tornadoes, small hail, and damaging wind gusts of at least 58 mph.

Rainfall totals across the region could range from 3 to 5 inches through the weekend. These totals will be beneficial for North Florida and the Panhandle, where drought conditions remain in the extreme-to-exceptional category.

However, it is important to keep in mind that parts of the western Panhandle, including the Tallahassee area, have already received rainfall over the past several days. Because of this, any heavier downpours that repeatedly move over the same locations, or storms capable of producing high rainfall rates in a short period, could lead to localized flooding.

Florida’s annual lovebug season has returned, but the worst drought in more than two decades has led to smaller swarms of these benign insects being spotted.

Plecia nearctica typically emerge in large numbers during the late spring and fall but this year, sightings have been reduced - an outcome largely attributed to state's the dry conditions.

According to experts with the University of Florida, lovebugs spend most of their lives underground in the larval stage before emerging as adults.

Their development is considered to be highly dependent on environmental conditions, such as temperature, humidity and soil moisture.

Reduced moisture causes leaves and other organic material to decompose slower than is typical, leading to reduced populations of bugs.

Drought conditions are the most extreme along the I-10 and I-75 corridor, with some areas resembling desert-like conditions.

Farther south, drought conditions have been less severe, allowing for somewhat more typical insect activity in southern portions of the state.

While rounds of rainfall over recent days have increased moisture levels, the precipitation has not been widespread enough to reverse precipitation deficits.

During previous seasons, lovebug activity has generally increased after rainfall events, as evidence by their splattering on vehicles.

Lovebugs are considered primarily to be a nuisance pest because they do not bite, sting or spread diseases, with their biggest impact on motorists.

If left uncleaned, the insects’ remains can damage vehicle paint and leave windshields dirty, reducing visibility for motorists.

Entomologists say lovebugs are most active during the warmest part of the day, typically from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., when temperatures climb above 84 degrees.

Activity also tends to increase during time periods of calmer winds and elevated humidity levels.

Contrary to long-running beliefs, the University of Florida did not create the bugs through any type of failed scientific experiment.

Researchers say the insects naturally migrated from Central America to Gulf Coast region during the early 20th century before eventually making it to the Sunshine State during the 1940s.

Historically, populations of lovebugs have fluctuated depending on climate patterns and have returned to a more active state once more typical weather conditions take hold.

Florida’s transition into the rainy season during the coming weeks has the chance to improve soil moisture levels and create more favorable conditions for lovebugs later this year.

NOAA says some of the most overlooked dangers come after the storm. In Florida, recovery can be one of the riskiest phases—when people return, cleanup begins, and hidden hazards start to take over.

Meteorologist Leslie Hudson takes a look at some of those hidden dangers. Click the YouTube link below for more:

After a hurricane, emergency responders may be overwhelmed. So after the storm, help may not arrive right away. Roads may be blocked, and communication systems may be overloaded. If calls won’t go through, try texting, email, or social media instead.

The recent drought has taken a toll on groundwater levels and water quality across Florida. Despite this, drinking water supply for residents and water supply used to extinguish recent wildfires has had little to no impact.

Office Chief of Communications and Outreach for the Suwannee River Water Management District Troy Roberts says the groundwater levels are in the 13^th percentile with some areas sitting even lower than that across the district. He expects the low groundwater supply and streamflow conditions to see some relief in major rivers this month.

So far, there are no major concerns with the amount of water firefighters have had to use on recent wildfires.

“The district is obviously supportive of any efforts to extinguish these wildfires and protect those people and property - that is a priority. And, obviously, while water use is involved here, much of that water being dumped on the ground is going to go back into the ground and will go back into our groundwater,” Roberts emphasizes.

Kelly Godsey, a senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Florida, reminds residents that although water supply for firefighters has not been greatly affected, the St. Johns River, Northwest Florida, and Suwannee River Water Management Districts have still implemented water restrictions because of the drought and lower groundwater levels. Troy Roberts mentions golf courses are also taking measures for their water usage. He says individual water usage can add up quickly, especially since there are 370,000 people living in the Suwannee district alone.

"If you turn off your tap for that 60 seconds while you’re brushing your teeth, you can save up to 4 gallons per minute,” Roberts explains.

Roberts emphasizes that every drop of water counts.

Godsey agrees with Roberts and says municipalities are still able to successfully pull water out of the ground. Neither of them has heard any reports of wells going dry yet.

“Our groundwater levels are not quite as low as in past droughts, but they are trending lower, so that’s something we’re going to keep an eye on,” Godsey says. “So, we’re not quite that dry on groundwater yet to where it’s going to be affecting drinking water on a large scale, so, if there are any issues, it’s generally more localized.”

With low river flows, Godsey says this could impact the overall water quality.

“Any type of contaminant or runoff from someone’s property or other locations into the river is just going to be at a greater concentration which can greatly decrease overall water quality just because we don’t have as much water in the river,” Godsey explains. “Any pollutants that are introduced into the water will make the river much less safe to be in.”

Godsey says local municipalities check their water quality monthly including well water. In the meantime, he says the Florida Department of Health tracks heavy rainfall events and keeps an eye on any incoming containments that may get released into the river system.

Overall, the drought has caused groundwater levels to be lower than usual which is increasing containment concentrations found in local rivers. However, there has been little to no impact on drinking water available for residents to use. Firefighters can also continue to fight the wildfires without affecting the overall water supply. The FPREN team of meteorologists and reporters will continue to monitor conditions and provide any available updates as necessary.