A disturbance headed to Florida might develop into something tropical, but likely not until after it leaves. Since it won’t have time to mature before approaching the peninsula, significant coastal impacts are not expected. However, the tropical wave will likely produce heavy rain and choppy seas across portions of central and south Florida beginning Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical wave a “low chance” of developing in the proximity of Florida or its adjacent waters of the Atlantic. If it goes as far as becoming a tropical storm, it would take on the name Irma. An assortment of forecast outcomes were observed in model guidance over the past 24 hours. Most of the reliable runs showed some semblance of a weak tropical storm by the time Invest 92 began to pull away from the state. Others showed the disturbance dissipating, while a few outliers were robust and rapid in tropical storm formation.
Not only is confidence low on whether a tropical storm will form, considerable uncertainty exists on how far west it would track before turning northeast and pulling away from the state. If it makes the turn near or east of the peninsula, the overall effects on day-to-day weather will be drastically reduced across inland areas and along Florida’s Gulf coast. If it meanders into the eastern Gulf, however, much more of the state will experience the adverse weather associated with it.
Regardless of development, heavy rain is likely the biggest outcome from Invest 92 to most Floridians in its path. The eastern side of the disturbance will carry the most moisture, but where this intersects the state is difficult to pin down before the aforementioned track becomes clearer. The potential does exist for 2 to 3 inches of rain to fall in some locations, and as it stands now, South Florida stands the highest chance for receiving those amounts Wednesday and Thursday.
Unsettled ocean waters and an elevated risk of rip currents will be a byproduct of Invest 92, especially on the Atlantic beaches and waterways. Until more specifics on the system can be credibly determined, details on wave heights and associated coastal hazards aren’t yet forthcoming.
The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue monitoring developments with Invest 92, and encourages all Floridians to stay informed of the forecast in the coming days.