FPREN Flooding and Heavy Rain

In Florida, the forecast cone is only part of the story. Hurricane impacts can extend far beyond the center track — reaching inland through wind, flooding, and tornadoes.

Days of rain across Florida as tropical moisture arrives and increases the flood threat.

Forecasters believe a strengthening El Niño pattern is likely to emerge in 2026 and continue into winter, thus influencing temperature and precipitation trends across the United States.

While stormy western and interior patterns continue to start the week, we are looking toward a substantial increase in moisture, which could bring numerous showers and storms for several days.

Preliminary data from the National Weather Service Surf Zone Fatalities tracker show that there have been 6 fatalities from rip currents. The winds bring a big risk for the holiday.

Florida’s first big beach-and-boat weekend is also one of its easiest weekends to underestimate. Lightning can strike while the sun is still out nearby, thunder means you are already close enough to be hit, and the safest shelter is not a tent, pavilion, or golf cart.

A high-pressure system will keep the fronts well north of Florida, but energy impulses will bring rounds of storms that will affect different regions of Florida.

Florida’s rainy season doesn’t begin all at once, and it doesn’t behave the same way all summer. It tends to build across the state, then shift through three distinct phases.

The weather pattern changes in Florida as the rainy season starts. Rain is needed and welcomed.

Drought report data runs weekly, with the data running between Tuesday and Tuesday, its release is on Thursdays.