The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was historic. Not only did it break several scientific records, the financial and human impacts were unprecedented. Only seven months removed from the costliest hurricane season in U.S. history, scientists fear the season ahead may be active again.
Doctor Phil Klotzbach will be the first to admit the skill in a seasonal hurricane forecast is only somewhat better than that of another famous Phil. This one from Punxsutawney. Yeah, the groundhog. Nonetheless, every year - and especially this year - our ears perk up when he speaks.
“We're forecasting a slightly above average season because we don't think a significant El Niño will develop this year.”
Phil and his team at Colorado State believe there will be 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. These numbers are slightly above the 30-year average. More than 29 years of research goes into this first forecast, and it does have a higher than 50 percent accuracy rate. Even still, Phil says the uncertainty diminishes considerably with his updates later in the spring and early summer.
“As you get closer to the peak of the season, your skill improves. Similarly to how your forecast for tomorrow will have more skill than your seven day outlook.”
But as he and all in the weather community say every year, anyone in a hurricane-prone area should prepare the same and stay informed. You can follow my live blogging form the Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, Texas for updates on the season ahead.