Subtropical Storm Alberto is now forecast to strengthen and take a track a little closer to Florida's west coast. This has prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for much of the Greater Tampa Bay Area. A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued for sections of the Nature Coast north of Crystal River.
Rain from the season's first named storm moved into much of South Florida early Saturday morning, but in most cases it has been light and steady. Heavier rain bands from Subtropical Storm Alberto are forecast to move across the peninsula Saturday night and Sunday, and a Flood Watch continues for all of central and south Florida through Sunday evening.
Beyond Sunday, Subtropical Storm Alberto is forecast to turn to the northwest - further away from Florida's west coast - and approach the Florida Panhandle. By Monday, conditions are projected to become more favorable for strengthening into a formidable tropical storm, and Alberto is likely to make landfall near or just west of Pensacola. Lingering moisture will likely lead to several more days of enhanced rainfall across the peninsula, but the coastal hazards should subside some Monday and Tuesday.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the entire WQCS listening area through Monday evening. The heaviest rain is likely to move into south-central Florida by Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday afternoon. Showers will continue through Tuesday. Early projections on rainfall totals from this storm system are between 4 and 8 inches. Flooding is possible in the region. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible along the coast late Sunday night into Monday morning. A few strong storms could also produce damaging winds and waterspouts. Tropical-storm-force winds will potentially begin impacting the region late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Subtropical Storm Alberto's moisture and resulting downpours may linger over the state through much of next week, further aggravating the flooding risk. However, other tropical weather hazards such as surge, wind and coastal flooding should subside by Tuesday.