If you have outdoor plans this weekend in Florida, in particular across the northern half of the state, you may want to reconsider. An area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf is likely to produce widespread rain and thunder, some of it heavy or strong, from Florida's Panhandle to the I-4 corridor of the peninsula.
Four to six inches of rain may fall in spots from the Emerald Coast to the Nature Coast through Monday. This includes cities such as Pensacola, Destin, Panama City, and Cross City. Locally higher amounts are also possible in these areas should stronger thunderstorms develop and stall.
A persistent flow of moisture from this disturbance and the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico will act to enhance the typical sea breeze thunderstorms Floridians experience each afternoon this time of year. The cells are likely to fire near the Gulf Coast early each day, then gradually shift east or north across the peninsula or interior sections of the panhandle by early afternoon. The daily routine will usually end by evening with the rain lingering the longest near the Atlantic coast communities.
Other areas of Florida are not immune to the heavy rain also this weekend. Generally speaking, most Floridians north of I-4, and west of I-75 will receive 2 to 4 inches of water by Monday, with lesser amounts further east and south. The heaviest rain will shift into the western side of the panhandle Monday, as the low begins to move west toward Louisiana by Tuesday. Much of South Florida will see a decrease in the rain coverage and intensity Sunday and Monday. The rest of the state will dry out considerably by Tuesday.