Panhandle & North Florida: flood, severe risk

Showers and thunderstorms are returning to Florida, bringing the potential for isolated severe weather across the Panhandle from Friday into Saturday.

A front will continue to meander across the Florida Panhandle on Friday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move in from west to east throughout the day. Rain coverage is forecast to increase later in the afternoon into the evening, with heavier downpours developing along the I-10 corridor.

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The western Panhandle will see the greatest chance for thunderstorms after 9 p.m. Friday, continuing into the early morning hours on Saturday. As the front pushes east and moves further into Florida Saturday morning, the focus for rain will shift toward the Tallahassee region and areas farther east by late morning into the afternoon.

Some thunderstorms could become severe Saturday morning from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. The primary threats include damaging wind gusts of 58 mph or higher and hail. There is also a low chance for a brief tornado, mainly across North and Central Florida, into Sunday afternoon as storms continue to move through.

As storms slow down between Tallahassee and Jacksonville, including Gainesville, there is a marginal risk for flash flooding. Despite very dry and compacted ground, rainfall rates may be high enough at times to overwhelm drainage.

Rainfall Totals

• Panhandle: Generally 1 to 1.5 inches, with isolated areas exceeding 2 inches, especially in the western Panhandle.

• North Florida (Friday through Saturday evening): Around 1 to 1.5 inches, with isolated totals near 2 inches.

  Avoid flooded roadways, as water depths may be deeper than they appear.
  

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Temperatures

This front will not bring a drastic temperature drop, but cooler conditions will be noticeable—especially by Sunday afternoon across the Panhandle. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 70s with drier air moving in.

The biggest change will be felt Sunday morning, when lows drop into the upper 40s in areas such as Pensacola, Panama City Beach, Tallahassee, and parts of interior North Florida. This is about 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of year.

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