Yes, one of the big headlines this week and across Florida will be the extreme heat. Heat advisories are likely to remain in place for several areas of Florida throughout the weekend. A high-pressure system continues to be in control, and we will have some Saharan dust moving in from the southeast, which will put a lid on South Florida’s rain chances this weekend.
Read more about this weekend record heat
Across North Florida, however, another story will unfold. A trough will brush the northern part of the state. Although high pressure will continue to bring scorching heat, the trough will also raise storm chances on Saturday afternoon. Some downpours could contain plenty of moisture and fall rapidly over the same areas, potentially causing isolated flash flooding across the region.
Florida's weekend forecast in a minute.
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) August 15, 2026
Lots of heat, but some spotty downpours over North Florida and the Panhandle can produce some isolated flash floods... the southern half of Florida will remain with limited storm activity and dust over South Florida. pic.twitter.com/LdrEcAPIiu
This is why the Weather Prediction Center has placed the entire Florida Panhandle and North Florida under a Marginal Risk for flash flooding. Remember, if you encounter any flooded areas, turn around, don’t drown. Water could be deeper than expected, and conditions can become dangerous rapidly.
Numerous downpours impacted the Panhandle, from Lake City westward to Pensacola, on Friday afternoon and evening. This same trend is expected to continue on Saturday. There is also a Marginal Risk, Level 1 out of 5, for severe storms to develop, mainly from near Tallahassee through Marianna along the I-10 corridor. The main threat with any severe thunderstorms that do develop will be isolated damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph.
Rainfall totals during the next five days will be relatively scarce overall. The Panhandle and North Florida could see some areas accumulate between 1 and 2 inches of rain. However, a few isolated spots could receive slightly higher amounts. The rest of the peninsula will see lower-than-normal storm activity, leading to below-normal rainfall for this time of year. Overall, the southern half of Florida will receive less than half an inch of rain during the next five days.
The drought continues - Driest year to date for many cities on record
About 90% of the state remains under some level of drought. The latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor still shows extreme drought across South Florida, parts of Central Florida's western region and North Florida. Taking a closer look at Florida’s rainfall deficit from January 1 through Thursday, August 13, the largest deficits are observed across South Florida, with Miami and Fort Lauderdale experiencing around a foot of rainfall deficit. Fort Myers also continues to have a deficit of slightly more than 10 inches this year.
Only a few spots across Florida have a rainfall surplus year to date. Port Charlotte is about an inch and a half above average so far this year, while areas from Vero Beach through Fort Pierce have received between 3 and nearly 7 inches more rainfall than average. Central Florida is experiencing its third-driest year to date on record, with a rainfall deficit of slightly more than 15 inches. Gainesville Regional Airport is experiencing its driest year to date on record. Jacksonville also has a rainfall deficit of almost 5 inches, making it the area's 10th-driest year on record. Although the Panhandle has received more rain, Tallahassee is still about 11.5 inches below average, making it the area's sixth-driest year on record.
