The Atlantic hurricane season remains on track to be one of the quietest in years, according to an updated outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The agency now expects between seven and 13 named storms to form during the season, including two to six hurricanes, with as many as two reaching major hurricane status.
Forecasters said a strengthening El Niño over the Pacific Ocean is likely to continue suppressing tropical cyclone development through the remaining three and a half months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Experts from Colorado State University released a similar outlook Wednesday, calling for the least active season in more than a decade.
CSU forecasters expect nine named storms to form, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane.
The updated outlooks include Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, the only named storms to form so far.
A typical Atlantic basin hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
While seasonal outlooks estimate the total number of storms, they do not predict where the cyclones will develop or where landfall will occur.
"Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated," National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement. "That's why it's important to prepare for every storm that's projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength."
The El Niño event was officially declared to be underway in June after sea surface temperatures in critical parts of the Pacific warmed above the needed threshold.
Since then, the climate event has continued to strengthen, contributing to strong vertical wind shear across much of the Atlantic.
The combination of persistent wind shear and dry air has left much of the basin relatively quiet through the first two months of the season.
"When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month," NOAA hurricane forecaster Matt Rosencrans said. "Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin."
Climatologically, the most active portion of the hurricane season is still ahead, with more than 85% of tropical cyclone activity occurring from August through October.
Computer forecast models have hinted at the possibility of a weak tropical disturbance developing across parts of the eastern and central Atlantic over the next few weeks. However, the deck appears to be stacked against the system should it venture westward across the basin.
